Abstract
The global food system contributes approximately one-quarter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with these dominated by the livestock sector. The projected increase in livestock demand is likely to undermine efforts to keep global average warming below a 2°C target. A carbon tax is often proposed as the preferred demand-side mechanism for reduced meat consumption. Previous studies, however, suggest that while this could prove successful in reducing net global emissions, it may worsen nutritional standards in lowest-income nations. An alternative market mechanism which may simultaneously reduce GHG emissions and improve health at all income levels is a reduction in the price of meat substitute products (meat-free proteins with particular nutritional and aesthetic similarities to meat). Using a combined ecological and health modelling approach, we project the associated GHG savings and health benefits associated with a stepwise reduction in the price of meat substitute products. Utilising food demand elasticities, we quantify the substitution of meat commodities across a range of social acceptability scenarios. Our results show that meat substitute products-integrated within a 'flexitarian' approach (primarily vegetarian but occasionally eating meat and fish)-have a large potential for reducing GHG emissions (up to 583MtCO2e per year) and improving nutritional outcomes (up to 52,700 premature deaths avoided per year). However, this capacity is strongly dependent on a combination of price reductions and improved social acceptability of this product group; therefore both will be essential.
Highlights
Agriculture and food production are estimated to contribute approximately 25–30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, dominated by the livestock sector which accounts for an estimated 14.5% globally (World Watch Institute, 2009; IPCC, 2014)
Note that in scenarios 1–3, where the social acceptability or preference for meat substitutes is equal or less than that of chicken, no substitution effect occurs until prices decrease by more than 10%; this represents the level at which chicken and QuornTM mycoprotein reach price parity
Our results show that the social acceptability variable is highly significant: at low levels of social acceptability, even if meat substitute prices were to decline by 75%, substitution would be low at less than 12%
Summary
Agriculture and food production are estimated to contribute approximately 25–30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, dominated by the livestock sector which accounts for an estimated 14.5% globally (World Watch Institute, 2009; IPCC, 2014). Whilst animal-based products generally have a higher GHG emissions-intensity relative to plant-based food commodities, moderate consumption of meat and dairy products can have a significant positive impact on human health and nutrition, providing high-quality protein, complete amino acid composition, and a vital source of micronutrients such as iron, calcium, zinc and vitamin B12 (Wu et al, 2014). This is important in developing nations where per capita meat intake is often lower than in developed nations, and where dietary composition is typically dominated by micronutrient-poor cereals and starchy roots (Gómez and Ricketts, 2013). Even small amounts of meat supplementation to the diets of low-income households has been shown to have nutritional benefits and reduce severe malnourishment indicators such as childhood stunting (Rivera et al, 2003)
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