Potential of China Pakistan Economic Corridor After US Exit From Afghanistan

(2021) Volume 2, Issue 4 Cultural Implications of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC Authors: Dr. Unsa Jamshed Amar Jahangir Anbrin Khawaja Abstract: This study is an attempt to highlight the cultural implication of CPEC on Pak-China relations, how it will align two nations culturally, and what steps were taken by the governments of two states to bring the people closer.

RETRACTED: Questing the three key growth determinants: Energy consumption, foreign direct investment and financial development in South Asia

23 Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies Vol. XXXVIII, No.4, Summer 2015 Will Democracy Survive? Afghanistan and the International Community Post-2014 Aneek Chatterjee* Introduction The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan at the end of 2014 has opened up many questions: what would be the future of democracy in Afghanistan if American forces are withdrawn completely from the trouble-torn nation? What would be the stance of important stake holders after such withdrawal? Will the war on terrorism, so eloquently eulogized by the American foreign policy mandarins, get a jolt? What about the Taliban-Al Qaida nexus in the region which has the potential to disturb American interests? Will the U.S. and the Taliban enter into any compromise formula? These are a few among many such questions the withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan has propelled in recent times. In the backdrop of the formation of new governments in Afghanistan (in 2014), and Pakistan (in 2013), and somewhat shaky U.S.-Pak relations in recent times, these questions have assumed greater significance. The survival of a fragile democracy in Afghanistan will depend on the existence of peace in the country in particular, and in the region in general. However, Afghan peace is dependent, as history has proved, on the wish of many key players, like domestic and external ethnic groups and regional and extraregional stake holders. This paper seeks to examine the Afghan scenario after 2014. For a structured analysis this paper would be divided into a few sections beginning with projections of emerging scenarios in post-2014 Afghanistan and dissecting, in following sections these projections, based on ground reality. *Aneek Chatterjee is a Professor and Head of the Department of Political Science, Presidency University, Kolkata, India. Fulbright-Nehru Visiting Professor (2010-11), University of Virginia, U.S.A. Contact: anik.polsc@presiuniv.ac.in 24 1 Blackwill, Robert D. 2011. “Plan B in Afghanistan: Why a De facto Partition is the Least Bad Option”, Foreign Affairs, 90 (1). Post-2014 Afghanistan: Possible Scenarios The withdrawal of international forces is necessary, yet hazardous for this land-locked country. It is necessary because the Afghans should learn to defend themselves in the absence of international forces; it is hazardous because the Afghans have not yet developed enough skills to tackle disruptive forces. Although ethnic loyalties among the Afghan population are very strong, nationalism also penetrates deep into Afghan minds. Therefore, any plan to divide the nation on ethnic grounds, as advocated by U.S. Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill1` would certainly not work out, simply because of the fact that ethnicity in Afghanistan does not favour division of the country. Therefore, a strong security force, backed by regional and international monetary and technical support, is required for Afghanistan. Now the question is, will the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) be able to defend the country after the complete withdrawal of international forces? The answer in all probability would be negative. In that case, the country may fall into the hands of the Talibans again or may plunge into another civil war. The international community is confused about the future of Afghanistan, and continuous monetary or technical assistance to meet the demands of peace in Afghanistan is almost impossible. The regional and extra-regional stakeholders have their own calculations and interests, and would not act in a responsible manner to build peace in Afghanistan. However, the absence of peace in Afghanistan has far reaching regional, and also, international implications. For the regions of South, West and Central Asia, a disturbed Afghanistan may imply increased domestic and international pressure. For instance, Talibanization of Afghanistan may destabilise Pakistan (as proved once again by the horrific Peshawar killings in December 2014); enhance the risk of terrorist activities in India, Pakistan and other parts of South Asia; lead to increasing involvement of Central Asian Republics, Iran, and Russia in the affairs of Afghanistan, and also increased trouble for these nations (remember the earlier Soviet engagement). Continued disturbance in Afghanistan will impact politics in Iran and adjoining nations of the Middle-east. Civil wars on ethnic lines may undermine the dream of establishing democracy in Afghanistan. American and NATO interests may suffer in...

While several studies examine the relationship between export diversification and economic growth, little is known about the relationship between export diversification and TFP growth. This paper makes an attempt to fill this research gap by considering South Asian region. We examine this relationship by looking at the long-run as well as the short-run relationship between TFP growth and export diversification by using annual data from 1995 to 2014. The empirical results derived from the panel cointegration technique provide evidence of long-run relationship between TFP growth and export diversification. The results based on DOLS confirm that export diversification positively affects the TFP growth in South Asian region; however, this evidence is weak when we analyzed each country separately. Finally, our results indicate that export diversification Granger cause TFP growth in the long-run, whereas no causality found in short-run. Our findings suggest that export diversification is crucial to avoid the volatility of export growth and for enchantment of productivity growth in South Asian region.

On February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement to establish peace in Afghanistan, which became widely known as the Doha Agreement. This agreement marked the end of one of the largest and bloodiest conflicts of the 21st century, the Afghan Civil War. The Doha Agreement is crucial to consider within the context of Afghan transitions, as well as the signing and content of the agreement itself, which became a turning point for the future of Afghanistan and its people, signaling the end of the long-standing presence of American and coalition forces in Afghanistan. The Doha Agreement is based on four key points: the withdrawal of American and coalition forces, the Taliban's commitment to conduct counter-terrorism operations, the initiation of intra-Afghan negotiations, and the establishment of a comprehensive and long-lasting peace. The Doha Agreement became a turning point in U.S. foreign policy, though it did not lead to long-term peace in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, it marked the beginning of a reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region. On the other hand, the agreement is also significant because the U.S. engaged in peace negotiations and signed an agreement with the Sunni extremist group known as the Taliban, which, to this day, it does not recognize as the official ruling force in Afghanistan.

The increased dependency on technology brings national security to the forefront of concerns of the 21st century. It creates many challenges to developing and developed nations in their effort to counter cyber threats and adds to the inherent risk factors associated with technology. The failure to securely protect data would potentially give rise to far-reaching catastrophic consequences. Therefore, it is crucially important to have national, regional, and global data protection policies and regulations to penalise those engaged in unethical use of technology and abuse the system vulnerabilities of technology. This research paper aims to analyse GDPR inspired Bills in the South Asian Region and to identify their appropriateness for developing a global level data protection mechanism, given that Asian nations are far more diverse than those of the European nations. Against that background, the objectives of this paper are to identify GDPR inspired Bills in the South Asian Region, identify the similarities and disparities, and the barriers to developing a regional level data protection mechanism, thereby fulfilling the need for developing a global level mechanism. This research is qualitative in nature, and with that in mind, the researcher conducted an extensive literature survey of previous research papers, journal articles, previous survey reports and government publications on the above content. Taking account of the findings of the survey, the researcher critically analysed the important parameters identified in the literature review. The key findings of this research indicate that many countries in the South Asian region are in the process of reviewing their current data protection mechanisms, in line with GDPR. In concluding, the researcher emphasised the need to develop adequate data protection mechanisms and believed that going forward it would be the appropriate and practical way to develop a consensus-based regional mechanism that would ultimately enable to develop a lasting global level data protection mechanism.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has become a modern diplomatic instrument for the United States of America to use it the way it wants for. As the U.S. led Afghan peace process embraced the victory, Washington, Afghan Taliban and Kabul government have agreed upon limited ceasefire and withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan soil. Pakistani authorities are equally ready to cease the movement, amid the challenges posed by the FATF, by facilitating U.S.-Taliban peace deal in Qatar on Feb 29, 2020, the biggest development happened ever in South Asian region. It happened for the first time of grinding warfare since the U.S. invasion in 2001 which is considered to be a vital step to end the insurgency altogether in the region. Pentagon finally accepted Islamabad’s stance that there is no military solution to the Afghan imbroglio. Pakistani authorities, through Afghan authorities, are said to be taking over Pakistani Taliban purportedly operating from Afghanistan. After playing a key role in brokering the said peace deal, the challenge of FATF as a diplomatic tool to pile up pressure on Islamabad to mold its role in favour of the US and the Taliban talks.

Central Asia consists of five states: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and rich with natural reserves. Pakistan has an important place in the South Asian region and occupies an important strategic location. Pakistan and Central Asian republics always keen to develop cordial relations. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CEPC) is a game-changer project of the region. China has injected over 70$ billion under CPEC in various projects in Pakistan and wants to invest more. Central Asian states are willing to join CPEC and wish to get benefits from this vital project. Central Asian republics can capture a large-scale market beyond South Asia and Pakistan, with its prime location can provide an accessible route. Gawadar Port is fully functional now and provides a transit route to the Central Asian republics and can significantly enhance ties among Pakistan and CARs. Now Pakistan considers the Central Asian region an essential pillar in its foreign policy. Islamabad tried its best to connect with the Central Asian region but could not get the desired results due to the various regional issues. Afghanistan is a constant hurdle in the way of a prosperous region. Afghanistan has been in war for the last four decades, and peace looks like a dream in the country. Islamabad has hosted Tajik President in June and the Uzbek President at the virtual meeting in April this year. Pakistan has signed various MoUs with both Central Asian states and it shows the importance of relations among Pakistan Central Asian republics. This paper analyzes Pakistan's foreign policy towards Central Asia in the context of CPEC. The researcher uses a qualitative technique to complete his research paper and this research paper enables readers to understand the significance of CPEC and Pakistan's relations with Central Asian states.

I think our real challenge is to make our political processes work at something that even remotely resembles the efficacy of our technological know-how right now, in getting us connected from miles apart. Bringing together the business community of the South Asian region is one of the most promising ways forward. We have a remarkable mix of positive progress and trust, while at the same time, certain areas are experiencing stagnation. The region presents great opportunity, but also enormous risk. On the one side, we have fast economic growth, as is absolutely the case in India—one of the fastestgrowing economies in the world, an economy that has now grabbed the attention and captured the imagination of the world in a way that China had before. At the same time, several other countries in the South Asian region are also experiencing brisk economic growth. Yet what we also still see is a considerable amount of turmoil, a failure to complete peace processes in several parts of the region, and a failure to achieve the cooperation in economic enterprise within the region, with skill being divided along ethnic, or sectarian, or political lines. I am a big believer in business communities everywhere being in the lead in solving such problems. I believe that this will be true for South Asia as well. I spend most of my time on the Millennium Development Goals project in Africa, which has the highest poverty rates in the world, and where economic growth has not come in the way that it has to South Asia. But it is no secret that South Asia remains the region with the largest absolute number of people in extreme poverty. While the count is debated, it is still over 300 million people in South Asia, and there may be as many as 400 million people living in what we would call extreme poverty, meaning poverty that is so severe that life is a struggle for survival.

Over the last three and half decades, China’s rapid advancement in development efforts has been accompanied by a conscious effort in projecting itself as a major frontrunner in the economy. Despite being a developing country (Huang, 2015), Chinese President Xi Jinping’s announcement in World Economic Forum (WEF) (Bruce-Lockhart, 2017) had hinted China’s growing interest in the development of trade and network among countries. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also one such development put forward to institutionalize China’s soft power presence in the world and create harmony with rest of the world. The Initiative has been placed as synonymous to a way of friendly cooperation signaling the project as “Road for Peace” (Kasturi, 2017). China has placed a tremendous amount of effort for its “charm offensive” approach with an estimated US$10 billion spending every year on its global soft power presence (Kurlantzick, 2017). Under the project, China has placed initiatives in approaching for regional connectivity in the South Asia region with China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) being regarded as its flagship program. As it goes, of all the projects China has undertaken in the BRI, its ventures in South Asia are considered challenging and need strong cooperation (Stratfor Enterprises, 2017). The unstable geo-politics and security threats in the region pose Beijing with a lot to consider before it can preach about the peaceful connectivity. Most significant of all, the problems in the region will be with India as it has openly expressed its dissatisfaction towards BRI. India not only observes the initiative as a security threat with CPEC corridor passing through the controversial Kashmir area, but also sees it as an initiative to undermine its traditional influence in the region. As such, this paper tries to provide an analytical view of BRI with China’s soft power presence in the South Asia region.

<div><p><em>Since mid 1990s, India is actively engaging in bilateral and regional negotiations with various countries and blocs to boost trade and level of integration. It has signed numerous agreements and become member. In South Asia region, India has close and trouble free relations only with landlocked kingdom i.e. Bhutan since 1949 under Treaty of Peace and Friendship. This treaty helped to enhance their integration i.e. free trade agreement (FTA) in goods signed between them in 2006. It is in this context, the present study applies revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and trade intensity index (TII) to explore India’s trade potential and prospects with Bhutan that will tell us either India has trade possibility with Bhutan or not. The major findings of the study showed that India has become the largest trading partner of Bhutan. India has strong and sustainable trade potential with Bhutan. Even India has no specialisation in the export of any product to Bhutan but still exports continued to increase at walking rate. Overall, India has strong trade prospects with Bhutan.</em></p></div>

India and China are now seeing each other as an opportunity rather than a threat. It has been observed that mutual mistrust remains on security and geostrategic issues making both wary of each other's military and economic growth. However, driven by the changing international trends, India and China recognized the need to cooperate for long term interests of regional and global peace and stability as well as their own economic prosperity. This study aims to revisit the issue of security, defense and war in South Asia region with reference to recent agreement in India "Look East" policy. The paper is based on historical evidences. It highlights the dynamics of India China relationship from hostility to detente. Furthermore, the research aims to construct a scenario about impacts of India-China rapprochement policy on regional security and insecurity. Theoretical framework of this paper is taken from Barry Buzan's Regional Security Complex Theory.

The South Asia region is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change flooding events leading to severe economic losses. With flood risks being transboundary, there is the potential for instability and state fragility to lead to migration and displacement, weak governance and overall geo-political instability in the South Asia region. Europe has experience in managing transboundary flood risks, having implemented the EU Flood Directive, which calls for transboundary actions to mitigate flood risks. Using existing platforms for cooperation, Europe can transfer knowledge on Integrated Flood Risk Management expertise from the Rhine and Danube to the South Asia region to ensure regional economic and political stability.

The article is devoted to consideration of two directions of state economic policy — maintaining economic stability and ensuring economic growth. The coronavirus pandemic has divided the world into “before and after”. In the previous period, the financial policy in Russia was based on the principle of macroeconomic stability. It would seem that the macroeconomic stability that has existed for several years has created the basis for economic growth in the country, but it has not been possible to realize the growth potential of the Russian economy. Economic stability is an important criterion for the economy. Only economic stability can be different.The economic stability of the Russian economy in the previous period is the economic stability of stagnation, because the cornerstone of the economic stabilization policy was maintaining a low inflation rate by artificially slowing down demand. N ow this economic stability of stagnation was overturned by the coronavirus epidemic due to a decrease in budget revenues and an increase in budget spending, which results in the threat of inflation.The purpose of the article is to substantiate the necessity and possibility of transition to a new form of economic stability — economic growth stability

South Asia is primarily affected by environmental degradation. As a result, it is worthwhile to explore the impact of international capital flows on the ecological sustainability of the South Asian region. There are many studies in the literature on the CO2-remittances nexus, CO2-FDI nexus, and CO2-economic growth; however, no study has yet taken remittances and FDI into account in the symmetric and asymmetric model for the South Asian region. To address the research gap, this study investigates the effect of international capital flows, fossil fuel energy consumption, and economic growth on South Asian carbon emissions. This study examines the effect of fossil fuel energy consumption, remittances, foreign direct investment, and economic growth on the environmental sustainability of the South Asian region from 1975 to 2020. Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models are used to estimate the symmetrical and asymmetrical relationships among the variables. The findings of the ARDL models reveal that fossil fuel energy consumption and economic growth increase while remittances and FDI decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) in the long run. According to the NARDL empirical findings, positive remittances and negative FDI shock reduce CO2. Besides, the positive and negative fossil fuel energy consumption shock increases CO2. Moreover, the positive (negative) economic growth shock increases (decreases) CO2. The cumulative dynamic multipliers revealed the adjustment pattern to new long-run equilibria. The study recommends that policymakers regard remittances and FDI as policy instruments, particularly when developing long-term strategies and policies connected to environmental quality.