Abstract
The paper analyzes the potential of Biomass Combined Heat and Power (BCHP) plants in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in achieving climate neutrality until 2050. Two scenarios for reducing GHG emissions from the power generation sector in BiH until 2050 were developed. Scenarios were developed using LEAP, a software tool for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment. The complete final energy consumption and existing primary energy mix in BiH were included. Both scenarios imply a significant reduction in electricity generation from coal-fired power plants (CFPP). The first scenario (S1) involves the construction of a substitute CFPP unlike the second scenario in which there is no construction of a new CFPP, but part of the reduction in electricity generation from the CFPPs is compensated by BCHPs. The second scenario (S2) achieves a significantly higher reduction in GHGs emissions and provides an answer to the question of how much wood biomass is needed for the operation of BCHP for enabling the decarbonization of the power generation sector by 2050. S1 also represents a step toward reducing GHG emissions. Emissions from power generation in 2030 are about 60% lower than in 2015, i.e. by closing part of the existing CFPPs fleet, while in 2050 GHG emissions will be reduced by 12.26 million tons of CO2eq compared to 2015. The main advantage of S2 is the gradual phase-out of CFPPs and construction of BCHPs, which means incomparably lower GHG emissions, negligible in 2050, representing a key argument for the deployment of biomass potential for power generation. The technical potential of unused wood biomass in BiH is 7.44 PJ annually or 620,620 t annually. These quantities would be sufficient for the levels of electricity production in Scenario 2 by 2035. After that, the existing available technical potential is not enough. This means that BiH needs to increase biomass production and its technical potential to enable the implementation of that scenario.
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