Potential distribution of vulnerable Entandrophragma angolense (Welw.) C. DC. (Meliaceae) in East Africa

Abstract

AbstractThe various human‐induced threats imposed on nature have recently triggered the study of species' distributions. We developed potential suitability models using two algorithms for a threatened African mahogany, Entandrophragma angolense, in three East African countries; Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. The effect of features selection and modelling algorithm selection on potential suitability predictions was explored. Occurrence records and high‐resolution environmental data were used. The two species distribution modelling techniques were genetic algorithm rule for prediction; and maximum entropy modelling. With Maxent, the area under the receiver characteristic operating curve (AUC) for potential distribution models tested on independent data ranged from 0.942 to 0.972 when using automatic features and from 0.974 to 0.666 with target or specific features. With GARP, AUC for potential distribution models ranged from 0.591 to 0.736 with all rule types and from 0.388 to 0.805 for specific rule types (Tables and ). The area under the E. angolense potential suitability was best predicted by soil, rainfall and aspect using GARP. Potential suitability increased with increasing aspect and decreased with increasing slope. Low rainfall and elevation increased potential suitability, while high levels of either variable decreased potential suitability. Potential suitability maps for vulnerable species require using a multi‐algorithm, fine scale data approach and incorporation of environmental variables like soil, slope, land use and elevation. Species distribution models can offer insight on the distribution requirements of vulnerable species and help guide the development of management plans. Results of this study suggest that E. angolense management plans should promote the protection of terrestrial forests surrounding water bodies including Mabira forest in Uganda.