Potential Competitiveness of Indonesian Rubber Export in International Trade

Indonesia is one of the largest natural rubber exporters in the world. On the other hand, the potential for natural rubber in the world market is enormous. The Asian continent is the largest market for Indonesian natural rubber, followed by American and European markets. Currently there have been many studies on the competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports to the international market, but so far there has not been much research on the competitiveness and potential of rubber exports specifically to European countries. This study aims to determine the competitiveness and the potential of Indonesian natural rubber in European countries, namely Germany, France, and Spain. The method used in this study is descriptive analytics, meanwhile Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) was used to determine Indonesia’s competitiveness in each of the partner countries, on the other hand Export Product Dynamic (EPD) was used to determine the performance of Indonesian natural rubber in partner countries. The RCA index shows that Indonesia has competitive advantages in the partner countries, and the EPD matrix indicated that Indonesia is in a rising star position in the German, French and Spanish markets. To strengthen this position, Indonesia needs to increase their export value through the increase in production.

Green tea is an export commodity produced by Indonesia. This commodity is produced from tea plantations in Indonesia. Currently, the value and volume of green tea exports are still lower than those of black tea. Therefore, it is necessary to study the comparative advantage and potential export for green tea in the international market. The novelty in this research is combining the comparative advantages and export potential of green tea which has not been researched previously. This study aims to analyze the comparative advantage and potential export of Indonesian green tea in the international market. The data used is Indonesian green tea export from 2006 to 2023. The data sources are UN Comtrade and the Central Statistics Agency. This study used the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) method, the trade specialization index, export product dynamic (EPD) method and X model. The results obtained indicate that the comparative advantage of green tea in the international market is relatively weak, as evidenced by the RCA value of less than 1. The trade specialization index is positive. A positive trade index indicates that Indonesia is classified as a green tea exporter. The weakening of Indonesia's comparative advantage in green tea has not impacted its position in the international market. The position of green tea in international trade based on export product dynamics is still in the rising star position, which means that Indonesian green tea is still in a profitable position. Based on the X model, Indonesian green tea still has the potential to be developed in the international market. Keywords: comparative advantage; export product dynamic; green tea; trade specialization index

Indonesian tea products have become an export-oriented commodity. However, Indonesian tea products trade performance, particularly the exports, has shown a persistent decline for the last decade (2012–2021). Therefore, this study aims to analyse the competitiveness of Indonesia tea products export as well as map the export destinations for Indonesia tea products. This study employs secondary data regarding tea product export value from UN Comtrade during the 2012–2021 period with analysis using revealed comparative advantage (RCA), export product dynamic (EPD), and X-model potential export product. The RCA results suggest that Indonesian tea products exhibit an overall strong comparative advantage in the international market, albeit still lagging behind India. Additionally, Indonesia also exhibits a strong comparative advantage in all tea products, except tea extract and preparation products. The EPD results show that Indonesia possesses a competitive advantage in packaged black tea, bulk green tea, also tea extract and preparation products. The export destination mapping reveals the 28 potential destinations serving as the focus for Indonesian tea export expansion. These potential destinations are dominated by the non-traditional. Keywords: tea products export, EPD, potential destinations, RCA, X-model potential export product

Background: Indonesia's fisheries and marine sector contributes a small percentage to the national gross domestic product (GDP), with seaweed being a key commodity. However, Indonesian seaweed exports are highly dependent on China, which poses an economic risk. South Korea has emerged as a potential alternative market with increasing demand for seaweed products.Purpose: This study aimed to analyze the trade performance, comparative advantage, and competitive advantage of Indonesian seaweed exports to South Korea and provide strategic recommendations to enhance competitiveness in the market.Design/methodology/approach: This study employs secondary data from 2018 to 2022, analyzing trade performance using the Trade Specialization Index (TSI), comparative advantage using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, and competitive advantage using the Export Product Dynamic (EPD) and Porter's Diamond model.Findings/Results: The analysis shows that Indonesia has strong trade performance in South Korea, holding a significant share of the market and being in the maturity stage of export development. The RCA results indicate that Indonesia has a high comparative advantage over other exporters. The EPD places Indonesia in the "Rising Star" category, confirming its growing competitiveness. However, competition with China remains a challenge. Recommendations include improving production efficiency, increasing investment in seaweed processing, enhancing infrastructure, and strengthening market positioning strategies.Conclusion: Indonesian seaweed has strong comparative and competitive advantages in South Korea. However, to sustain and further increase competitiveness, strategic improvements in production factors, demand conditions, related industries, and competition structures are necessary.Originality/Value: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of Indonesia's seaweed export competitiveness in South Korea by integrating multiple analytical frameworks to offer strategic recommendations for sustainable market expansion. Keywords: competitiveness, export, EPD, RCA, seaweed

The developments of the world trade requires the improvement of the competitiveness of products, including agricultural commodities. At the regional level, Indonesias agricultural commodities face the ASEAN free market competition. This study aims to identify and examine the competitiveness of Indonesian exports of several agricultural commodities in the international market by employing the index of competitiveness of trade specialization by trade specialization index (TSI), and the index of market penetration, by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). This study observed the HS 4 digit agricultural commodities, along 2011-2015. The study finds that the index of commodity trade specialization of estate crops sub-sector is in a stage of maturation of the world trade, or it has a very strong competitiveness. The food crops sub-sector stand on the introduction stage of the world trade or it has low competitiveness, or in other words, Indonesia is a net importer of the sector commodities. Although some of commodities have the strong competitiveness, but on the other hand, they do not have a strong comparative advantage. This is shown by the RCA value that less than 1. It means that a part of agricultural commodities, namely food crops, horticulture and estate, are still import oriented.The developments of the world trade requires the improvement of the competitiveness of products, including agricultural commodities. At the regional level, Indonesias agricultural commodities face the ASEAN free market competition. This study aims to identify and examine the competitiveness of Indonesian exports of several agricultural commodities in the international market by employing the index of competitiveness of trade specialization by trade specialization index (TSI), and the index of market penetration, by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). This study observed the HS 4 digit agricultural commodities, along 2011-2015. The study finds that the index of commodity trade specialization of estate crops sub-sector is in a stage of maturation of the world trade, or it has a very strong competitiveness. The food crops sub-sector stand on the introduction stage of the world trade or it has low competitiveness, or in other words, Indonesia is a net importer of the sector commodities. Although some of commodities have the strong competitiveness, but on the other hand, they do not have a strong comparative advantage. This is shown by the RCA value that less than 1. It means that a part of agricultural commodities, namely food crops, horticulture and estate, are still import oriented.

Cashew nuts (Anacardium occidentale) are a leading plantation commodity with high economic value, essential for the development of the agricultural industry. Despite their significant potential as an export commodity, the export value of Indonesian cashew nuts has tended to decline during the period from 2013 to 2022. The aim of this study is to measure the competitiveness and development position of Indonesian cashew nuts from 2013 to 2022 in export destination countries. The data used in this research are secondary data in the form of time series data. The time series data includes annual data over 10 years (2013-2022) with export destination countries being Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Japan, and China. The methods used in this study are the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), and X-Model Potential Export Product methods. The results of the study show the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Export Product Dynamics (EPD) values of Indonesian cashew nuts for the period 2013-2022 in the Vietnamese market with an RCA of 4.47 and a Lost Opportunity market position, India at 0.88 with a Retreat status, Singapore at 0.019 with a Falling Star status, Malaysia at 0.43 with a Lost Opportunity status, Sri Lanka at 21.55 with a Falling Star status, Japan at 7.36 with a Falling Star status, and China at 0.21 with a Rising Star market position. Meanwhile, the X-Model analysis shows that the market potential in Vietnam, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Japan, and Malaysia is classified as potential markets, the market potential in China is classified as an optimistic market, and the market potential in India is classified as a less potential market. As an export commodity, cashew nuts require proper handling and special attention. To ensure the quality, selling value, and strong competitiveness of cashew nuts, the government must continuously strive to enhance the selling value of cashew nuts through plantation development, garden and plant maintenance, and processing improvements.

Indonesian mangoes have an excellent opportunity to participate in the international market, but amid intense competition in the international market, Indonesian mangoes feel unable to compete. This study analyzes trade specialization, comparative advantage, and competitive advantage, as well as Indonesia's position as a mango exporter in the global market. The Trade Specialty Index (TSI) is a method used to analyze trade specialization, while Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) is a method for analyzing comparative advantage, and Export Product Dynamics (EPD) is a method for analyzing competitive advantage and market position for Indonesian mangoes. The study falls under the quantitative category because it uses secondary data in the form of a time series that spans ten years, from 2012 to 2021. The research uses India, Thailand, and Pakistan as comparison countries and Singapore, Malaysia, France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany as destination countries. According to the results of the TSI analysis, Indonesian mangoes exhibit trade specialization as importers in five destination countries, except for Malaysia and Singapore. Malaysia and Singapore are in the growth stage, Germany is in the introduction stage, and four other countries are in the import substitution stage. According to the average value of revealed comparative advantage (RCA), only two of the seven destination nations, Malaysia and France, exhibited strong competitiveness for Indonesian mangoes. The Export Product Dynamic (EPD) matrix reveals that Indonesian mangoes are in a retreating position toward the markets of Malaysia and Singapore. At the same time, the other five target countries are in a falling star position. Increasing the value of TSI, RCA, and EPD can be accomplished by improving post-harvest technology to increase production quantity and quality and developing marketing networks.

Cinnamon is one of the leading plantation commodities that is most widely exported among other types of plantation products. Since the 1990s, Cinnamon has been in demand not only by the domestic market but also the world market so that it has become a potential plantation export commodity for Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the comparative and competitive advantages of Indonesian cinnamon exports in the world market, as well as the development and projection of Indonesian cinnamon exports in the world market. The study was conducted from January to March 2022. The research method uses a descriptive quantitative method with a Secondary Data Analysis (SDA) approach. The type of data used in this study is secondary data in the form of a time series in the form of data on Indonesian cinnamon exports to the world market for the period 2011 - 2020 which comes from various sources. The data analysis method uses exponential trend analysis to answer the development of Indonesian cinnamon exports and projections in the world market, the Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) analysis to analyze the comparative advantages of Indonesian cinnamon exports, as well as the Export Product Dynamic (EPD) method and the Trade Specialization Index (ITS) are used to determine the competitive advantage and performance of a commodity. The results showed that the competitiveness of Indonesian cinnamon exports for export destination countries of the United States, the Netherlands, Vietnam, Brazil, and Thailand had a strong competitiveness, indicated by the RCA value of 19.82. Export Product Dynamic (EPD) that often appears during the period 2011 - 2020 in the five export destination countries is rising star, then retreat, falling star, and the least appearing is lost oppurtinity. The results of the ITS analysis with a positive value of 0.92 show that Indonesia has a tendency to be a net exporter country. Cinnamon exports to the world market in 2011-2020 had an increasing trend every year and are projected to increase for 2021-2025.

Indonesia, as the second largest rubber producer in the world, has exported rubber to various countries; India is one of the leading destinations for rubber export. However, many factors can affect Indonesian rubber exports to India. This study aims to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber exports in India and the international market and to determine the factors that can affect Indonesian rubber exports to India. The data used are secondary data from 2005 to 2022 obtained by FAO, ITC, BPS, World Bank, and Bank Indonesia. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), and Export Competitiveness Index (ECI) methods to analyze the competitiveness of rubber export. Multiple linear regression analysis to analyze the factors that affect exports. The study results show that the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber exports in the Indian market is strong, although it fluctuates. The competitiveness of Indonesian rubber exports in the international market is dominated by strong export competitiveness, but it has had weak competitiveness. Production factors and land area have a significant and positive effect, exchange rates and export prices have a negative impact, and producer prices and India’s GDP per capita do not significantly affect exports. This states that increasing the export competitiveness and volume of Indonesian rubber exports to India can be done by increasing rubber production to increase the supply of export rubber.

Indonesia is recognized as one of the world's leading cinnamon producers, boasting competitive capabilities in the global cinnamon trade. Despite a decline in export volume, the value and export prices of Indonesian cinnamon tend to increase. Therefore, this study aims to comparatively analyze the market structure and export competitiveness of Indonesian cinnamon in international trade using secondary data. To evaluate the market structure, several analysis methods are used including the Concentration Ratio (CR4), Herfindahl Index (HI), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and Trade Specialization Index (TSI). This results shows that the cinnamon market in international trade can be characterized as an oligopolistic competitive market with a notable level of concentration. Indonesian cinnamon shows both comparative and competitive advantages in the global market, occupying a Rising Star position in the United States, a Falling Star position in India, a Lost Opportunity position in Vietnam, and a Retreat position in the Netherlands and German markets respectively. Indonesian cinnamon is in the maturity stage with an average TSI value of 0.90, and Indonesia tends to be an exporting country. In terms of market potential, the United States emerges as the most promising market for developing Indonesian cinnamon, with considerable opportunities also present in the Indian and Vietnamese markets. Conversely, the Netherlands and German markets show comparatively less potential for growth and development. The study recommends that efforts to increase the volume of Indonesian cinnamon exports should be focused on increasing domestic cinnamon production both in terms of quality and quantity.

Japan stands as the largest importer of coconut shell charcoal products (HS 440290) globally, with a majority sourced from the ASEAN region. Despite being the foremost exporter of coconut shell charcoal, Indonesia faces fluctuating export values to the Japanese market. This variability indicates suboptimal exporting of Indonesian coconut shell charcoal due to raw material scarcity and unrealized export potential. This study aims to; (1) analyze the comparative competitiveness of coconut shell charcoal exports from ASEAN nations, including Indonesia, in the Japanese market from 2010 to 2021, (2) assess the competitiveness of coconut shell charcoal exports from ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, during the 2010-2021 period, (3) examine the potential for developing the Indonesian coconut shell charcoal export market compared to other ASEAN nations in Japan. The research employs the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and X-Model analysis methods. RCA and RSCA analyses reveal Indonesia's comparative competitiveness in the Japanese market, alongside Laos and Malaysia. However, EPD and X-Model perspectives indicate Indonesian coconut shell charcoal is positioned behind Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam, signifying lower market potential. The policy implication underscores Indonesia's export reliance on lower-quality coconut shell charcoal. To enhance export competitiveness, the Indonesian government might consider adopting strategies akin to Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

The success of competitiveness of Indonesian fruits export in the destination countries is determined by comparative and competitive advantage and other factors. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Export Product Dynamic (EPD) are used in this research to analyze the position of competitiveness of Indonesian fruits export. This research also uses panel gravity model to analyze the factors which affect the export volume of Indonesia fruits (mango, mangosteen, rambutan, banana, and melon). The results from EPD and RCA method show that fruits which have the highest comparative and competitive advantage in destination countries and the world are mangoesteen, mango, and guava. Indonesian fruit which lost its opportunity to compete in the destination countries is strawberry. The results of this research shows that the factors which influence the export of Indonesian fruits to the destination countries are export price, population, economic distance, real GDP and GDP per capita, real exchange rate, Indonesian consumer price index, and dummy variable of crisis which happened in Europe.

Crude coconut oil (crude coconut oil) is one of the vegetable oil commodities that plays an important role in international trade. Indonesia, as one of the largest coconut producers in the world, has great potential in exporting crude coconut oil; however, its performance remains volatile and faces competition from major rival countries, particularly the Philippines. This study aims to analyze the export competitiveness of Indonesian crude coconut oil in the international market during the period 2015–2024. The study employs a descriptive quantitative approach using secondary data sourced from ITC Trade Map and UN Comtrade. The analytical methods applied include Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Growth RCA, and Export Product Dynamics (EPD). The results indicate that Indonesia's crude coconut oil exports have a comparative advantage (RCA > 1), but their competitiveness is not yet stable and is relatively lower than that of the Philippines. The EPD analysis places Indonesian crude coconut oil in the Retreat category, indicating that both Indonesia's export market share growth and global demand growth for crude coconut oil tend to weaken simultaneously. These findings suggest that Indonesia's comparative advantage in crude coconut oil has not yet been converted into dynamic export competitiveness, as reflected in the Retreat position in the EPD analysis and the fluctuating competitiveness growth during the study period.

The object of this study is to know the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber and articles thereof (HS 40) export in international market, also the rivals (China and Thailand) by using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) to analyze the comparative advantage and Export Product Dynamic (EPD) to analyze the competitive advantage. The result shows that Indonesia has a comparative advantage and specializes in rubber and articles thereof (HS 40) export above the average of countries’ based on RCA value, but this commodity is not competitive in capturing the international market based on EPD value. This study also finds the weakness of the RCA method that has been unable to identify the relative productivity (comparative advantage) of country. We underlined that RCA valuein this study is not absolutely shows the strength/weakness of the countries.

Coffee is a key commodity in international trade, particularly within the European Union (EU), which serves as the primary market for countries in the Like-Minded Countries (LMC). However, trade restrictions, particularly those related to environmental policies, have emerged as significant barriers to agricultural trade, including coffee exports. As LMC countries remain major suppliers to the EU, it is crucial to examine the factors influencing coffee’s competitiveness and untapped export potential. This study analyzes the competitiveness and efficiency of coffee exports from 16 LMC to the EU between 2013 and 2022. The analysis employs several methodologies, including Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics, the X-Model, and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). Th e findings reveal that LMC that adapt to stricter sustainability standards and increase transparency in their supplychains can increase competitiveness. Empirical estimates indicate that the EU’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) positively influences coffee imports, while economic distance, exchange rates, and coffee import prices have a negative impact on import volumes. Additionally, the study highlights a significant gap between actual and potential coffee imports, suggesting opportunities for greater import efficiency. Based on these findings, it is recommended that LMC countries enhance coffee quality through sustainability certifications, capitalize on Free Trade Agreements (FTA), and improve trade infrastructure to reduce logistical barriers and transaction costs, thereby maximizing export potential to the EU. Key words: Comparative advantage; European Union; like-minded countries; potential analysis; stochastic frontier.