Abstract
Approximately one-third of our food globally comes from insect-pollinated crops. The dependence on pollinators has been linked to yield instability, which could potentially become worse in a changing climate. Insect-pollinated crops produced via hybrid breeding (20% of fruit and vegetable production globally) are especially at risk as they are even more reliant on pollinators than open-pollinated plants. We already observe a wide range of fruit and seed yields between different cultivars of the same crop species, and it is unknown how existing variation will be affected in a changing climate. In this study, we examined how three hybrid carrot varieties with differential performance in the field responded to three temperature regimes (cooler than the historical average, average, and warmer that the historical average). We tested how temperature affected the plants' ability to set seed (seed set, pollen viability) as well as attract pollinators (nectar composition, floral volatiles). We found that there were significant intrinsic differences in nectar phenolics, pollen viability, and seed set between the carrot varieties, and that higher temperatures did not exaggerate those differences. However, elevated temperature did negatively affect several characteristics relating to the attraction and reward of pollinators (lower volatile production and higher nectar sugar concentration) across all varieties, which may decrease the attractiveness of this already pollinator-limited crop. Given existing predictions of lower pollinator populations in a warmer climate, reduced attractiveness would add yet another challenge to future food production.
Highlights
Insect-pollinated crops comprise approximately one-third of the global food supply [1]
The objectives of this study were to 1) test the effect of temperature on temporal patterns of plant traits that might predict performance in the field, including bloom phenology, seed set, pollen viability, nectar quality, and floral volatiles and 2) examine if these effects differ across varieties with a range of historical yields to test whether varietal differences are reduced or exaggerated by warming, and 3) use this information to determine which factors are important in present-day pollination failure, and which may be important given a changing climate
To assess the extent to which these characters contribute to differences in yield and how they may respond to climate warming, we examined the correlations between each one and plant variety, temperature, and time-ofday in generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs), generalized additive mixed-effects models (GAMMs) or ordination-based tests
Summary
Insect-pollinated crops comprise approximately one-third of the global food supply [1] Many of these plants owe their present uniformity [2], disease resistance [2], and high yields [3,4,5,6] to hybrid production systems, including carrot, tomato, onion, melons, squash, brassicas, and eggplant [7]—together totaling nearly 20% of global crop production [8].
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