Possibility between earthquake and explosion seismogram differentiation by discrete stochastic non-Markov processes and local Hurst exponent analysis.

Abstract

The basic scientific point of this paper is to draw the attention of researchers to new possibilities of differentiation of similar signals having different nature. One example of such kinds of signals is presented by seismograms containing recordings of earthquakes (EQ's) and technogenic explosions (TE's). EQ's are among the most dramatic phenomena in nature. We propose here a discrete stochastic model for possible solution of a problem of strong EQ forecasting and differentiation of TE's from the weak EQ's. Theoretical analysis is performed by two independent methods: by using statistical theory of discrete non-Markov stochastic processes [Phys. Rev. E 62, 6178 (2000)] and the local Hurst exponent. The following Earth states have been considered among them: before (Ib) and during (I) strong EQ, during weak EQ (II) and during TE (III), and in a calm state of Earth's core (IV). The estimation of states I, II, and III has been made on the particular examples of Turkey (1999) EQ's, state IV has been taken as an example of Earth's state before underground TE. Time recordings of seismic signals of the first four dynamic orthogonal collective variables, six various planes of phase portrait of four-dimensional phase space of orthogonal variables and the local Hurst exponent have been calculated for the dynamic analysis of states of systems I-IV. The analysis of statistical properties of seismic time series I-IV has been realized with the help of a set of discrete time-dependent functions (time correlation function and first three memory functions), their power spectra, and the first three points in the statistical spectrum of non-Markovity parameters. In all systems studied we have found a bizarre combination of the following spectral characteristics: the fractal frequency spectra adjustable by phenomena of usual and restricted self-organized criticality, spectra of white and color noises and unusual alternation of Markov and non-Markov effects of long-range memory, detected earlier [J. Phys. A 27, 5363 (1994)] only for hydrodynamic systems. Our research demonstrates that discrete non-Markov stochastic processes and long-range memory effects play a crucial role in the behavior of seismic systems I-IV. The approaches, permitting us to obtain an algorithm of strong EQ forecasting and to differentiate TE's from weak EQ's, have been developed.