Abstract
Subgroup analyses are important components of precision medicine, but typically lack power to distinguish between false negatives and false positives.Hence, prior plausibility, elicited from experts is an important criterion for their credibility. There is little guidance on how this should be elicited, leaving decision-makers to judge plausibility of subgroup effects after trial results have been published. Additionally, counterfactuals are typically unobservable, outside clinical trials, for subgroup effects.
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