Populism, technocracy, and affective polarization: Evaluating antipluralist dynamics

Issue evolution is a well-established theoretical perspective in the analysis of long-term party competition and partisanship in the US. However, this perspective has rarely been used to analyze political elite effects on partisan polarization in European multiparty systems. Consequently, I apply the issue evolution perspective to polarization in a European multiparty system. I find an emergence of cultural issues in Denmark, where mass level polarization on cultural issues followed elite level polarization. Unlike two-party systems, niche parties drive issue evolution on the elite level, which is then followed by niche partisan polarization and, finally, mainstream party adaption. The findings illustrate the mechanisms of issue evolution in a European-style multiparty system and the role of niche parties.

To determine the accuracy of the SF-36 summary mental and physical health scales in reflecting their underlying subscales using the traditional method of scoring based on factor coefficients derived through principle components analysis and orthogonal rotation. A representative Australian population survey containing the SF-36 was used to obtain factor coefficients from principle components analysis and orthogonal rotation for scoring the physical component summary (PCS) and the mental component summary (MCS) of the SF-36 in the traditional way. In addition two other methods were used to produce coefficients. The first method used maximum likelihood extraction and oblique rotation. The second method fit a structural equation model to the data in a confirmatory factor analysis. The coefficients derived by each of the methods were applied to the data of a second representative population survey. This survey also provided data on physical and mental health status which allowed comparison of the summary scores and underlying subscales according to various health states. Neither of the scoring methods based on the exploratory factor analyses methods (orthogonal and oblique) produced summary scale scores, by age group, that adequately reflected the underlying subscales. When coefficients derived using structural equation modeling were fit to the data in a confirmatory factor analysis the MCS and PCS accurately reflected their underlying subscale scores. They also produced MCS and PCS scores for the various health states as would be expected from the underlying subscales. The traditional methods of scoring the SF-36 summary scales produce results that would not be expected from the underlying subscales. The problem was only corrected by fitting a structural equation model to the data in a confirmatory factor analysis. The results advise caution in the use of the SF-36 summary scales and suggests that alternative methods of developing factor coefficients need to be employed in studies using the SF-36 summary scales.

Familiarity with mental illness and social distance from people with schizophrenia and major depression: testing a model using data from a representative population survey

Introduction: This paper aims to test which has a greater influence on affective polarisation (AP) in a multiparty system such as the Spanish one: partisan identity or ideology. In doing so, we review the validity of the expressive approach to partisanship and we test the biases that political identities can cause. Method: We use a strict measure based on a feeling thermometer regarding ordinary people depending on the party they vote for and their ideology and we propose a formula to estimate the levels of difference in interpersonal political affect (DIPA). Subsequently, linear regression models were developed using data from a national representative sample survey conducted during the election campaign for the July 2023 general elections (n = 1,223). Results: Strong positive partisanship influences individual AP in a prominent way both when attitudes are expressed towards partisan or ideological groups. This contradicts the widespread discourse regarding the primacy of ideology in European multiparty systems. Moreover, we show that the overlapping between these two identities is not significant in explaining the phenomenon. Conclusion: AP is a group identity-based phenomenon even outside the U.S, which invites us to interpret it using the theories of social psychology.

While positive party identification is one of the most used concepts in election studies, negative partisanship (NPID) is rarely analyzed. Evidence from two-party systems or settings with majority voting shows that hostility towards one of the other parties has its own unique impact on voting behavior. However, this effect has not been analyzed in the context of European multi-party systems with proportional voting. In this paper, I utilize data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, Module 3, which demonstrates that negative partisanship has its own positive effect on turnout (about nine percentage points). In addition, negative partisanship affects vote choice by 2–6 percentage points. However, contrary to previous findings, NPID does not always affect voting for one of the other parties; no significant relationship was found between NPID and vote choice for Conservative/Christian Democratic and Liberal parties. The results of this study add to the growing literature on negative partisanship and demonstrate its importance in the analysis of voting behavior in multi-party systems.

A growing body of comparative studies on partisan hostility – a phenomenon known as affective polarization – is providing evidence that partisan affective polarization is generally no greater in the United States than it is in many European multiparty systems. This article takes the comparative literature on affective polarization one step further by presenting the first comparative study on affective polarization that simultaneously uses, compares and combines a direct measure of affective polarization towards voters (using the inter‐party marriage measure) and an indirect measure of affective polarization towards parties (using the like/dislike of party measure) while accounting for the fact that multiparty systems have numerous political parties. This is done by comparing the levels of affective polarization in the United States and Norway. The results show greater affective polarization in the United States relating to parties, but the differences between these two countries are indistinguishable from chance when focusing on the affect relating to voters. This provides empirical evidence that comparative evidence of negative affect towards parties cannot necessarily be generalized to suggest that there is comparative evidence of negative affect towards voters. Yet the results also suggest that negative feelings towards out‐parties move to some extent to the personal level in terms of negative feelings towards voters of these out‐parties.

Can linked administrative data be used to transform New Zealand's only sample survey on indigenous wellbeing into a longitudinal study? This project extends the usefulness of an important survey dataset by linkage to admin data, effectively adding longitudinal capability within a linked administrative data source. This created robust statistical processes to transform an official statistics survey into a nationally representative cohort study. NZ's Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) is a research database of administrative and survey datasets containing a range of variables linkable at the individual level. Te Kupenga is a large nationally representative post-censal survey of NZ's indigenous population (Māori) and is the only official survey with Māori culturally-informed variables. However, it is under-utilised in research. The Te Kupenga survey was used as a foundational cohort linking to outcomes and determinants in different datasets at different time periods. Outcomes included hospitalisations and COVID-19 vaccinations, while determinants included individual, household and geographic variables. Linking a representative survey to admin data created issues of loss to follow-up and missing data, so the original sample is not maintained after linkage. Loss to follow-up and missingness differed depending on variable selection and time periods. So, new universally applicable weights were not possible. However, we created a robust, generally applicable process for re-weighting survey data to account for missingness and loss to follow-up in admin data. This project demonstrates the approach for turning a sample survey into a longitudinal cohort using admin data and creates methods that can be used for other official statistics surveys.

Introduction

While left and right are the main terms to distinguish political views in Western Europe, the family socialization of citizens has mainly been studied in terms of partisan preferences rather than identification with these ideological blocks. Therefore, this study investigates the intergenerational transmission of left‐right ideological positions in two European multiparty systems. To investigate expectations regarding gendered patterns in political socialization, ideological transmission between mothers, fathers, daughters and sons are analyzed, making use of German and Swiss household data. The results underline the relevance of the family in the transmission of political ideology in multiparty systems, showing high contemporary parent–child concordance in ideological positioning in line with classic work in political socialization. Moreover, the study demonstrates how the gender‐generation gap in political ideology is consequential for this process. Young women consistently place themselves on the left of men across all combinations of parental ideology, which indicates that the gender‐generation gap trumps other gendered patterns in intergenerational transmission. Consequently, daughters are less likely than sons to take over their parents’ rightist positions, while parent–son transmission is equally large on the left and the right. This also means that left‐leaning parents have a general advantage over right‐leaning parents in having their ideological identification reproduced by their daughters. The study highlights the importance of differentiating between the transmission of left‐ and right‐wing ideology in political socialization processes. Moreover, it demonstrates that the distinction by offspring gender is imperative when studying the intergenerational transmission of traits that display gender differences within and between parental and offspring generations. The findings point at the active role of especially female offspring in the political socialization process, as they seem to be more strongly impacted by influences outside the family that sustain generational processes of further gender realignment.

There is a continuing debate over the political importance and durability of partisan attachments in European multi-party systems. Drawing on a nationally representative five-wave panel, we provide a longitudinal test of the power of partisanship in Italy over the course of the tumultuous 2013 national elections. We find that a strong partisan affiliation measured as a social identity two years prior to the election promoted system stability by increasing support for the in-party and inhibiting electoral support for the insurgent Five Star Movement (M5S). In contrast, non-partisans, especially highly educated ones, were more likely than partisans to vote for M5S. Our results illustrate the role of partisanship in stabilizing multi-party systems amid crisis.

This study is the first to measure urban-rural electoral divides in a way that facilitates comparisons beyond majoritarian democracies of the UK and North America. Based on national election results at the lowest available geographic level in fifteen countries covering roughly five decades, we present a measure for each election and political party, enabling comparisons over time and between countries with different electoral and party systems. We show that long-term increases in urban-rural divides have been most pronounced in the US, the UK, and Canada, but these divides have also emerged in several European multiparty systems in recent decades, largely because of growing smaller parties with predominantly urban or rural support. Overall urban-rural electoral divides remain lower in these systems due to continued presence of mainstream parties with geographically diverse support. Our contribution paves the way for a comparative research agenda on causes and consequences of urban-rural electoral polarization.

The objective of the study was to examine the factor structure of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms in a representative population survey of adults and the association of these factors with health outcomes. Hierarchical and correlated factor analysis models were compared, and regression analyses with these models were used to determine the associations with psychological distress and substance use problems. A total of 1449 adults 18-65years of age participated in a cross-sectional survey over the phone. ADHD symptom data came from an ADHD screener (10 items), and health outcomes were assessed using a questionnaire measuring psychological distress and two measures of substance use problems. The hierarchical general factor models with specific factors best represented the structure of ADHD in this representative population survey. The general factor and residual inattention factor were significantly associated with psychological distress, and the general factor was associated with substance use problems. From the correlated factor models, the inattention factor was associated with psychological distress and the hyperactivity factor was related to substance use problems. The hierarchical and correlated factor models explained similar levels of variance in outcomes. The results replicate previous studies indicating that a model of ADHD symptoms with a unitary dimension and separable dimensions of residual inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity demonstrates a better fit than correlated factor models. The ADHD general factor was consistently significantly related to outcomes.

ABSTRACTComparative studies of partisanship lack a comparable transatlantic measure. In the U.S. the traditional ANES measure is used, while in European multi-party systems a party-closeness measure is mostly used. A recent contribution proposed PTV (propensity-to-vote) gap as a potential solution to this issue, showing that the gap in PTV scores between the best- and the second best-placed party has desirable properties in the American case. In this article we test the same measure on the multi-party case of Italy, using panel data from the CISE 2012–2013 Electoral Panel.The case is particularly relevant, given the turbulence experienced by the Italian party system at the time, with the emergence of important new parties. This makes this period a crucial test for performing a validation of party identification measures. Comparing the new measure with the traditional party-closeness measure, we show that: a) both measures are more stable than vote choice, in line with party identification theory, and contrary to previous research on other European multi-party systems; b) the two measures are virtually equivalent in terms of over-time stability. As a second comparative validation, we investigate the mutual effects relating partisanship and vote over time. Results show superiority for the PTV-gap measure, which has similar predictive power on vote choice, but in turn is predicted by it to a statistically inferior extent. As a result, we conclude that our validation of the PTV-gap measure– already successfully tested in the U.S. context – qualifies it as a productive tool for comparative research on partisanship.

Smoking and excessive drinking place a strain on household budgets. We aimed to examine the impact of the cost-of-living crisis in Great Britain on the nature of smoking cessation and alcohol reduction attempts, and explore changes in health professionals offering support. Data were from 14,567 past-year smokers and high-risk drinkers (AUDIT-C ≥5) participating in monthly representative surveys, January-2021 through December-2022. We estimated time trends in cost as a motive driving the most recent (smoking cessation/alcohol reduction) attempt, use of paid or evidence-based support, and receipt of GP offer of support for smoking cessation or alcohol reduction, and tested for moderation by occupational social grade. The proportion of attempts motivated by cost did not change significantly over time among smokers (25.4% [95%CI = 23.8-26.9%]), but increased between December-2021 and December-2022 among high-risk drinkers from less advantaged social grades (from 15.3% [95%CI 12.1-19.3] to 29.7% [20.1-44.1]). The only change in support use was an increase in smokers using paid support, specifically e-cigarettes (from 28.1% [23.7-33.3] to 38.2% [33.0-44.4]). Among those visiting their GP, the proportion who received an offer of support was similar over time among smokers (27.0% [25.7-28.2]) and high-risk drinkers (1.4% [1.1-1.6%]). There is limited evidence that the 2021/22 cost-of-living crisis affected the nature of attempts to stop smoking and reduce alcohol consumption, or receipt of GP offer of support. It is encouraging that use of evidence-based support has not declined and that use of e-cigarettes in quit attempts has increased. However, cost is increasingly motivating alcohol reduction attempts among less advantaged drinkers, and rates of GPs offering support, especially for alcohol reduction, remain very low.

The public’s preferences concerning the allocation of financial resources to health care: results from a representative population survey in Germany