Abstract
Changes in the spatial patterns of ethnic diversity and residential segregation are often highly localized, but inconsistencies in geographical data units across different time points limit their exploration. In this paper, we argue that, while they are often over-looked, population grids provide an effective means for the study of long-term fine-scale changes. Gridded data represent population structures: there are gaps where there are no people, and they are not (unlike standard zones) based on population distributions at any one time point. This paper uses an innovative resource, PopChange, which provides spatially fine-grained (1 km by 1 km) gridded data on country of birth (1971–2011) and ethnic group (1991–2011). These data enable insight into micro-level change across a long time period. Exploring forty years of change over five time points, measures of residential ethnic diversity and segregation are employed here to create a comprehensive ‘atlas’ of ethnic neighbourhood change across the whole of Britain. Four key messages are offered: (1) as Britain’s ethnic diversity has grown, the spatial complexity of this diversity has also increased, with greater diversity in previously less diverse spaces; (2) ethnic residential segregation has steadily declined at this micro-scale; (3) as neighbourhoods have become more diverse, they have become more spatially integrated; (4) across the whole study period, the most dynamic period of change was between 2001 and 2011. While concentrating on Britain as a case study, the paper explores the potential offered by gridded data, and the methods proposed to analyse them, for future allied studies within and outside this study area.
Highlights
Analyses of neighbourhood change are often subject to compromises around the size of spatial units and temporal inconsistencies in their boundaries (Martin et al 2002)
For this special issue on “Exploiting Fine-scale Data in Modeling Migrants’ Settlement Patterns in Europe” we set out to explore the potential of population grids for analysing long-term change in ethnic/racial geographies
Unlike using standard administrative zones for analyses of change over time, population grids are not based on a population structure at one time point
Summary
Analyses of neighbourhood change are often subject to compromises around the size of spatial units and temporal inconsistencies in their boundaries (Martin et al 2002). Much of the scholarship in this area has emphasised the significance of small areas—neighbourhoods—in understanding the drivers, and resultant patterns, of (ethnic) demographic change (Johnston et al 2016; Catney 2018; Lan et al 2020) Despite this interest in the local, and on temporal trends, a British ‘atlas’ documenting changing ethnic geographies has not yet been attempted at this scale, and for such a long time period. Our analytical strategy is novel in making use of grids, and in applying a suite of methods in their analysis These include variograms, a method rarely applied in population studies, which, in this paper, is used to provide a quantitative summary of the spatial extent of diversity and how this has changed over a long time period. Each method is introduced in turn, alongside the presentation of results, before summarising the findings and reflecting on their implications
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