Population Dynamics of Buffalo: The Effects of Droughts and Non-Equilibrium Dynamics

Leaf traits of Central-European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and oaks (Quercus petraea/robur): Effects of severe drought and long-term dynamics

Experiments featuring non-equilibrium glassy dynamics under temperature changes still await interpretation. There is a widespread feeling that temperature chaos (an extreme sensitivity of the glass to temperature changes) should play a major role but, up to now, this phenomenon has been investigated solely under equilibrium conditions. In fact, the very existence of a chaotic effect in the non-equilibrium dynamics is yet to be established. In this article, we tackle this problem through a large simulation of the 3D Edwards-Anderson model, carried out on the Janus II supercomputer. We find a dynamic effect that closely parallels equilibrium temperature chaos. This dynamic temperature-chaos effect is spatially heterogeneous to a large degree and turns out to be controlled by the spin-glass coherence length ξ. Indeed, an emerging length-scale ξ* rules the crossover from weak (at ξ ≪ ξ*) to strong chaos (ξ ≫ ξ*). Extrapolations of ξ* to relevant experimental conditions are provided.

In this paper we study the evolutionary dynamics of delayed maturation in semelparous individuals. We model this in a two-stage clonally reproducing population subject to density-dependent fertility. The population dynamical model allows multiple, cyclic and/or chaotic attractors, thus allowing it to illustrate how (i) evolutionary stability is primary a property of a population dynamical system as a whole, and (ii) that the evolutionary stability of a demographic strategy by necessity derives from the evolutionary stability of the stationary population dynamical systems it can engender, i.e., its associated population dynamical attractors. Our approach is based on numerically estimating invasion exponents, defined as the theoretical long-term average relative growth rates of different mutant population densities in the stationary environment defined by a resident population system. For some combinations of resident and mutant trait values we have to consider multivalued invasion exponents, which makes the evolutionary argument more complicated (and more interesting) than is usually envisaged. Multivaluedness occurs (i) when more than one attractor is associated with the values of the residents' demographic parameters, or (ii) when the setting of the mutant parameters makes the descendants of a single mutant reproduce exclusively either in even or odd years, so that a mutant population is affected by either subsequence of the fluctuating resident densities only. Non-equilibrium population dynamics or random environmental noise select for strategists with a non-zero probability to delay maturation. When there is an evolutionary attracting pair of such a strategy and a population dynamical attractor engendered by it, this delaying probability is a Continuously Stable Strategy, this is an Evolutionarily Unbeatable Strategy which also is Stable in a long term evolutionary sense. Population dynamical, i.e., temporary, coexistence of delaying and non-delaying strategists is possible with non-equilibrium dynamics, but adding random environmental noise to the model destroys this coexistence. Adding random noise also shifts the CSS towards a higher probability of delaying maturation.

Observations of water flow in unsaturated soils often show “dynamic effects,” indicated by nonequilibrium between water contents and water potential, a phenomenon that cannot be modeled with the Richards equation. The objective of this article is to formulate an effective process description of dynamic nonequilibrium flow in variably saturated soil which is both flexible enough to match experimental observations and as parsimonious as possible to allow unique parameter estimation by inverse modeling. In the conceptual model, water content is partitioned into two fractions. Water in one fraction is in equilibrium with the pressure head, whereas water in the second fraction is in nonequilibrium, described by the kinetic equilibration approach of Ross and Smettem (2000). Between the two fractions an instantaneous equilibration of the pressure head is assumed. The new model, termed the dual‐fraction nonequilibrium model, requires only one additional parameter compared to the nonequilibrium approach of Ross and Smettem. We tested the model with experimental data from multistep outflow experiments conducted on two soils and compared it to the Richards equation, the nonequilibrium model of Ross and Smettem, and the dual‐porosity model of Philip (1968). The experimental data were evaluated by inverse modeling using a robust Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. The results show that the proposed model is superior to the Richards equation and the Ross and Smettem model in describing dynamic nonequilibrium effects occurring in multistep outflow experiments. The three popular model selection criteria (Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and deviance information criterion) all favored the new model because of its smaller number of parameters.

While experimental designs developed in recent decades have contributed to research on dynamic nonequilibrium effects in transient two-phase flow in porous media, this problem has been seldom investigated using direct numerical simulation (DNS). Only a few studies have sought to numerically solve Navier–Stokes equations with level-set (LS) or volume-of-fluid (VoF) methods, each of which has constraints in terms of meniscus dynamics for various flow velocities in the control volume (CV) domain. The Shan–Chen multiphase multicomponent lattice Boltzmann method (SC-LBM) has a fundamental mechanism to separate immiscible fluid phases in the density domain without these limitations. Therefore, this study applied it to explore two-phase displacement in a single representative elementary volume (REV) of two-dimensional (2D) porous media. As a continuation of a previous investigation into one-step inflow/outflow in 2D porous media, this work seeks to identify dynamic nonequilibrium effects on capillary pressure–saturation relationship ( P c – S ) for quasi-steady-state flow and multistep inflow/outflow under various pressure boundary conditions. The simulation outcomes show that P c , S and specific interfacial area ( a nw ) had multistep-wise dynamic effects corresponding to the multistep-wise pressure boundary conditions. With finer adjustments to the increase in pressure over more steps, dynamic nonequilibrium effects were significantly alleviated and even finally disappeared to achieve quasi-steady-state inflow/outflow conditions. Furthermore, triangular wave-formed pressure boundary conditions were applied in different periods to investigate dynamic nonequilibrium effects for hysteretical P c – S . The results showed overshoot and undershoot of P c to S in loops of the nonequilibrium hysteresis. In addition, the flow regimes of multistep-wise dynamic effects were analyzed in terms of Reynolds and capillary numbers ( Re and Ca ). The analysis of REV-scale flow regimes showed higher Re (1 < Re < 10) for more significant dynamic nonequilibrium effects. This indicates that inertia is critical for transient two-phase flow in porous media under dynamic nonequilibrium conditions.

Quantifying plant drought resistance is important for understanding plant species' association to microhabitats with different soil moisture availability and their distribution along rainfall gradients, as well as for understanding the role of underlying morphological and physiological mechanisms. The effect of dry season drought on survival and leaf-area change of first year seedlings of 28 species of co-occurring woody tropical plants was experimentally quantified in the understory of a tropical moist forest. The seedlings were subjected to a drought or an irrigation treatment in the forest for 22 weeks during the dry season. Drought decreased survival and growth (assessed as leaf-area change) in almost all of the species. Both survival and leaf-area change in the dry treatment ranged fairly evenly from 0% to about 100% of that in the irrigated treatment. In 43% of the species the difference between treatments in survival was not significant even after 22 weeks. In contrast, only three species showed no significant effect of drought on leaf-area change. The effects of drought on species' survival and growth were not correlated with each other, reflecting different strategies in response to drought. Seedling size at the onset of the dry season had no significant effect on species' drought response. Our study is the first to comparatively assess seedling drought resistance in the habitat for a large number of tropical species, and underlines the importance of drought for plant population dynamics in tropical forests.

We study the propagation of a finite‐amplitude elastic pulse in a long thin bar of Berea sandstone. In previous work, this type of experiment has been conducted to quantify classical nonlinearity, based on the amplitude growth of the second harmonic as a function of propagation distance. To greatly expand on that early work, a noncontact scanning 3‐D laser Doppler vibrometer was used to track the evolution of the axial component of the particle velocity over the entire surface of the bar as functions of the propagation distance and source amplitude. With these new measurements, the combined effects of classical nonlinearity, hysteresis, and nonequilibrium dynamics have all been measured simultaneously. We show that the numerical resolution of the 1‐D wave equation with terms for classical nonlinearity and attenuation accurately captures the spectral features of the waves up to the second harmonic. However, for higher harmonics the spectral content is shown to be strongly influenced by hysteresis. This work also shows data which quantify not only classical nonlinearity but also the nonequilibrium dynamics based on the relative change in the arrival time of the elastic pulse as a function of strain and distance from the source. Finally, a comparison is made to a resonant bar measurement, a reference experiment used to quantify nonequilibrium dynamics, based on the relative shift of the resonance frequencies as a function of the maximum dynamic strain in the sample.

Here, we describe population and reproductive dynamics of four populations of Macrobrachium amazonicum in reservoirs during drought events. Additionally, we analyze possible phenotypic changes in this species promoted by fish predation. Two populations had a large-size phenotype (with large body proportions and morphotypes in males) while a small-size phenotype (with reduced sizes and no morphotypes) was found in the two other populations. Overall, females were larger than males and there were varying sex ratios among the four studied populations. All populations had bimodal or polymodal patterns in their monthly size-class frequency, suggesting a seasonal influence and a potentially great capacity of these populations to adapt to adverse environmental conditions. No major changes were found in the patterns of sex ratio, recruitment, frequency of (larger) male morphotypes and female ovarian development stages during drought events. Macrobrachium amazonicum is a resilient species and undergoes continuous reproduction. Females with immature ovaries were predominant in all populations, performing multiple spawns and exhibiting rapid ovarian development cycles. In males, the initial morphotype (TC - translucent claw) was predominant in populations with a social hierarchy. Males of dominant morphotypes (GC1 and GC2 - green claw 1 and 2) use more energy to carry out and maintain metabolic processes, which could probably one of the explanations why their number in populations are limited. We did not find any clear evidence that fish predation affected phenotypes, suggesting that phenotypic plasticity could be more related to intrinsic factors, which would have to be further investigated.

Global climate change poses critical challenges to food security and market stability as extreme weather events become increasingly frequent and severe. The combined effects of compound extreme events and global trade dynamics on food security, however, remain insufficiently explored. Here, we employed a copula-based statistical approach, integrating international trade data to estimate maize yield failures under compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) and to assess how global trade dependence and supply diversity impact food security under such stressors. Our findings reveal a 70.1% probability of global maize yield failure as CDHE intensity increases, with key breadbasket regions, including Northeast China, Europe, North America, Latin America, and South Africa, particularly vulnerable. Both drought and heat events contribute similarly to global maize yield risk; however, regional desynchronies, such as distinct effects in China and Brazil, highlight differing vulnerabilities. Furthermore, countries heavily dependent on imports from regions with high yield failure risk, such as Vietnam and Colombia, face an increased probability of maize yield failure exceeding 40%. Conversely, supply diversity offers a modest buffering effect, mitigating some adverse impacts of CDHEs, albeit with notable uncertainties. Our findings underscore the compounded vulnerability of maize yields to CDHEs, intensified by trade dependencies, while highlighting the potential for supply diversification to enhance resilience. Urgent adaptations, transformative strategies, and policy interventions are critical to mitigate cascading risks within the global food system, bolster resilience to climate change, and ensure food security.

Extreme precipitation and drought events are predicted to become more intense and more frequent over the Amazon rainforest. Because changes in forest dynamics could prompt strong feedback loops to the global climate, it is of crucial importance to gain insight into the response of tropical forests to these recurring extreme climatic events. Here, we evaluated the Amazon forest stability (resistance and resilience) to drought in the context of past dry and wet climatic events using MODIS EVI satellite imagery and cumulative water deficit anomalies. We observed large spatial differences in the occurrence of extreme climatic events from 1980 to 2019, with an increase in drought frequency in the central and northern Amazon and drought intensity in the southern Amazon basin. An increasing trend in the occurrence of wet events was found in the western, southern, and eastern Amazon. Furthermore, we found significant legacy effects of previous climatic events on the forest drought response. An extreme drought closely preceding another drought decreased forest resilience, whereas the occurrence of a recent drier-than-usual event also decreased the forest resistance to later droughts. Both wetter-than-usual and extreme wet events preceding an extreme drought increased the resistance of the forest, and with similar effects sizes as dry events, indicating that wet and dry events have similarly sized legacy effects on the drought response of tropical forests. Our results indicate that the predicted increase in drought frequency and intensity can have negative consequences for the functioning of the Amazon forest. However, more frequent wet periods in combination with these droughts could counteract their negative impact. Finally, we also found that more stable forests according to the alternative stable states theory are also more resistant and resilient to individual droughts, showing a positive relationship between the equilibrium and non-equilibrium stability dynamics.

Effects of non-equilibrium solvation dynamics on barrierless electronic relaxation in solution

During the last twenty years, Jordan has witnessed many drought events, which put constraints on irrigated agriculture. These conditions urge the government to take necessity measures to alleviate the impact of drought. This paper aims at evaluating the effect of different irrigation dynamics on yield and water consumption through the application of deficit irrigation. By using meteorological records and soil and crop data for the Jordan Valley, ISAREG model as well as EVAPOT and KCISA programs were applied to estimate irrigation water requirements and reduction in yield. Water productivity under different levels of water deficits was determined. It was concluded that wheat and citrus are the crops that best perform under drought using economic criteria. ISAREG model proved to be a valuable and helpful tool to be used for irrigation management and estimation of yield reduction.

Vegetation response to grazing and drought (13 yr) in a conservation area in the Succulent Karoo, South Africa

We have performed a numerical investigation of the influence of disorder on the dynamical non-equilibrium evolution of a 3D site-diluted Ising model from a low-temperature initial state with magnetization m0 = 1. It is shown that two-time dependences of the autocorrelation and integrated response functions for systems with spin concentrations p = 1.0, 0.95, 0.8, 0.6 and 0.5 demonstrate ageing properties with anomalous slowing-down relaxation and violation of the fluctuation-dissipation ratio. It was revealed that during non-equilibrium critical dynamics in the long-time regime the autocorrelation functions for diluted systems are extremely slow due to the pinning of domain walls on impurity sites. We have found that the fluctuation-dissipation ratio for diluted systems with spin concentration p < 1 while the pure system is characterized by . The autocorrelation function power-law delay becomes the same as for the time dependence of the magnetization in the critical point and is characterized by exponent . Also, for diluted systems we reveal memory effects for critical evolution in the ageing regime with realization of cyclic temperature change and quenching at .

Optical response functions are known to reflect quantum dynamics in a superposition state and as such, lack a well-defined classical limit. In a previous paper we considered the importance of accounting for the quantum nature of the dynamics by comparing the linear absorption spectrum and homodyne-detected time-integrated two-pulse photon-echo signal as calculated via the semiclassical forward-backward approach, linearized semiclassical approach, and standard approach which is based on equilibrium ground state dynamics [Shi and Geva, J. Chem. Phys. 122, 064506 (2005)]. In the present paper, we extend the comparison to the case of heterodyne-detected and time-resolved nonlinear time-domain rephasing and nonrephasing signals generated in three-pulse experiments and the corresponding frequency-domain two-dimensional spectra. The comparison is performed in the context of a two-state chromophore solvated in a nonpolar liquid. It is shown that the inherent insensitivity of the standard method to the nonequilibrium dynamics on the excited state potential surface gives rise to two-dimensional spectra which are symmetrical relative to the diagonal. In contrast, accounting for the effect of nonequilibrium excited state dynamics, as is the case within the forward-backward and linearized semiclassical methods, is found to give rise to two-dimensional spectra that become increasingly asymmetrical relative to the diagonal as the waiting time between the second and third pulses becomes larger. It is argued that the emergence of the asymmetry provides a useful probe of nonequilibrium solvation on the excited state potential surface.