Population ageing and national security in Asia

Abstract

Abstract Population aging is pervasive in powerful states in the Asia—Pacific region, but the effects of and responses to it vary in ways that do not neatly fit with what initial theories anticipated. Why have many of these states' foreign policies been far more aggressive or militaristic than expected for their demographics? The key to understanding population and national security is an institutional perspective that recognizes how demographic changes interact with other factors. The range of institutions among the Asia—Pacific powers explains some of the variation in their foreign policies; policies intended to respond to or adapt to those demographic shifts explain the rest. Understanding how aging shapes states' external behaviours is increasingly important as population aging is becoming the predominant demographic trend globally. Those forecasting the effects of population aging must accurately account for the ways institutions mediate demographic change, or risk severely underestimating or overestimating the capabilities and intentions of allies and adversaries. An illustrative discussion of institutional arrangements and military manpower adaptations demonstrates why the effect of population aging has been diluted in China and Russia thus far but suggests that Japan is well positioned to manage the economic risks posed by an aging population.