Political knowledge reduces hindsight memory distortion in election judgements

Abstract

Hindsight bias occurs when outcome information biases judgements. Previous studies have demonstrated hindsight bias in judgements of election outcomes, but few studies have examined the role of domain knowledge in hindsight bias. The present study examined the relationship between political knowledge and hindsight bias using both memory and hypothetical designs. Participants answered political knowledge questions and some made predictions before the 2012 US Presidential Election. After the election, participants were provided with the outcomes. Those who made predictions were asked to recall them, whereas those who did not make predictions were asked what they would have predicted. Both groups demonstrated hindsight bias: their recalled or hypothetical predictions were closer to the election results than participants' actual predictions. Political knowledge was negatively correlated with hindsight bias in recalled predictions but not significantly correlated with hindsight bias in hypothetical predictions. These findings help elucidate the role of domain knowledge in hindsight bias.