Abstract
IN AN EARLY but now neglected classic of the development literature, Wolfgang Stolper drew on his experience as head of the economic planning unit in Nigeria to argue that the choice of economic strategy in any developing country must necessarily be conditioned by the nature of the data available. This view is reflected in the title he gave to his book, Planning Without Facts.l A quarter of a century on, as Nigeria wrestles with an economic collapse of unparalleled magnitude, I shall argue that Stolper's approach has if anything increased in relevance. Although the major strategy for economic transformation in Nigeria has changed from comprehensive economic planning to a 'structural adjustment programme', it remains the case that the policy-maker faces uncertainties concerning the economy's current position and its response to past policies. In this essay we shall explore the implications of this fact for appropriate economic strategy in Nigeria. The general line of argument will be the following:
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