Abstract

In this paper we apply a model of technological diffusion, Future Technology Transformations in the Transport Sector (FTT: Transport), linked to the E3ME macroeconomic model, to study possible future technological transitions in personal passenger transport in four East Asian countries. We assess how targeted policies could impact on these transitions by defining four scenarios based on policies that aim to reduce emissions from transport. For each country we find that an integrated approach of tax incentives, subsidies, regulations (fuel economy efficiency), kick-start programs and biofuel programs yield the most significant emission reductions because, when combined, they accelerate effectively the diffusion of electric vehicles in the region.

Highlights

  • As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (AR5) highlighted, the transportation sector will need to play a key role in climate change mitigation, but will certainly face challenges in doing so [1]

  • I3n,swcehneanriao b3,iowfuheelnma abniodfauteel mandate is introduced in addition to the tax incentives, fuel economy standards, and a kick-start program, emissions fall by nearly 90% below 2005 levels (Figure 6)

  • In this paper we assessed four scenarios that examine the interactive effect of transportation policy incentives on emissions reduction in private passenger vehicles in four East Asian countries

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Summary

Introduction

As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (AR5) highlighted, the transportation sector will need to play a key role in climate change mitigation, but will certainly face challenges in doing so [1]. Previous studies that have assessed the effectiveness of policy incentives in reducing emissions from passenger vehicles have typically focused on a single country or region in Asia (e.g., [5,6,7,8]) These studies have looked at the effectiveness of taxation schemes (vehicle taxes, carbon taxes) and regulations (fuel economy standards) in shaping the diffusion of energy-efficient vehicles. (1) Most existing studies and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) feature only a small number of policy instruments, applied to individual East Asian countries (e.g., [5,9]).

Policy Context
Taiwan
Theoretical Background
Structure of FTT
The Generalized Cost as a Comparison Measure
Technology Learning
Energy Consumption and Emissions
Linkage between FTT
Policy Implications and Conclusions
Findings
Limitations and Recommendations
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