Point and interval forecasting approach for short-term urban subway passenger flow based on residual term decomposition and fuzzy information granulation

Abstract

Accurate forecasting information of short-term subway passenger flow is an important scientific reference for daily operations and urban management. The rapid time-varying nature of subway passenger flow caused by various factors that affect travel behavior poses a huge challenge to accurate forecasting. The complexity and uncertainty of data mainly focus on residual terms that deeply reflect the fluctuations. Reasonably mining the residual terms has become the key to achieving accurate forecasting. Therefore, this paper proposes a sophisticated decomposition strategy to extract and analyze the useful information hidden in the residual terms. Firstly, the potential trend, seasonal and residual terms from the original data are extracted by seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess. Secondly, the residual term is decomposed into a series of subcomponents with different frequency features by symplectic geometric mode decomposition. Thirdly, these subcomponents are classified into three clusters based on fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM), and then the corresponding forecasting models are matched to the three obtained clusters and trend and seasonal terms. Finally, based on a decomposition-ensemble framework and information granulation for high-frequency components, we have established point and interval forecasting approach, respectively. Three experiments on real data sets in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are conducted to verify the performance of the proposed approach, and the experimental results show that our approach is superior to all benchmark models and contributes to improving operational management and service quality.