Pluralistic ignorance in Sino–Hong Kong conflicts: the perception of mainland Chinese people living in Hong Kong

Abstract

This study examined pluralistic ignorance in the context of conflicts between Hong Kongers and mainland Chinese in Hong Kong. This focus differs from past studies, which have mainly explored in-group pluralistic ignorance regarding whether people could correctly perceive the opinions of others who belonged to the same social group as they did. The present study investigated whether people could correctly perceive the public opinion of a collective to which they did not belong. Using two representative samples of mainland Chinese students and local students from three universities in Hong Kong, this study found that mainland students overestimated the local public’s unfavorability regarding Chinese mainlanders and the Chinese government. This overestimation was found to be positively associated with their attention to media content about the Sino–Hong Kong relationship and the extent to which they perceived the pertinent media content to be biased toward Hong Kong but negatively associated with their interpersonal communications with Hong Kongers about issues regarding the Sino–Hong Kong relationship. The overestimation of the local public’s unfavorability of Chinese mainlanders and the Chinese government reduced the willingness of mainland students to stay in Hong Kong for further study, work, or domicile. Based on the findings of this study, further research on pluralistic ignorance is recommended in order to determine how migrants perceive the mainstream opinion in the society to which they migrate.