Plantation forestry in Brazil:projections to 2050

Abstract

Brazil is fortunate in having large areas of land that are not currently forested but that are suitable for silvicultural plantations. Changes in the area and regional distribution of the country’s silvicultural plantations imply a wide variety of environmental and social impacts. Projections of future development of plantation silviculture are needed for analyzing these impacts, as well as to serve as a reference scenario for evaluating the potential effects of climatic change on Brazil’s plantations, and for the related task of evaluating the implications of proposals to combat global warming by increasing the area of silvicultural plantations in Brazil beyond the extent to which they would otherwise expand. Such a reference scenario provides the control, or “business as usual” standard, against which one can compare the situation as affected by climatic change and/or by additional silvicultural or other activities carried out to help mitigate climatic change. Assuming constancy of climate, technology, per-capita consumption of wood products, and Brazil’s share of international trade, the area of plantations in 2050 would be 3.2 times larger than the area in 1991.