Abstract
The 2 cent-per-lb drop in the price of ethylene widely forecast for July apparently will not take place. Instead, the price likely will remain firm because of production declines this month—and possibly throughout the third quarter—resulting from plant shutdowns for planned maintenance and from accidents. Last month, forecasts of lower ethylene prices—to 30 cents a lb from the June price of about 32 cents—were heard as demand for several derivatives (especially polymers) appeared to weaken. For example, an expected boost in exports of derivatives, notably to China, has failed to materialize. In fact, since late last year, exports to China have declined. And in the U.S., demand for ethylene derivatives has been growing more slowly than a year ago, while production and inventories, at least during the first quarter of this year, have remained high. During July, about 8% of U.S. nameplate ethylene capacity will be shut down for at least part of the month. ...
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