PHP38 - The Use of Simulation for Estimating Hospital Treatment Capacity in Dealing With Mass Casualty Incidents

Abstract

A well-designed ambulatory system is able to transport casualties to appropriate care facilities in the event of mass casualty incidents [MCI]; however, strict methods have yet to be devised for the estimation of hospital treatment capacity [HTC]. This study used dynamic computer simulation techniques to estimate HTC during a mass casualty incident in order to identify critical resources and their effects on hospital treatment capacity. Following analysis of the Taiwan Emergency Medical Service System database, a team of experts reviewed the conditions associated with 95 casualties in order to determine how many and which types of examinations, treatments, and resources would be required in the event of an MCI. This information was then used to aid in the creation of a virtual simulation of MCI in order to calculate the hospital treatment capacity. Computed Tomography scanners were identified as a bottleneck in the system and larger hospitals with more resources were shown to have higher HTC. The use of simulation techniques avoids the need for experiments and yet provides valuable guidance for decision making related to the allocation of resources to deal with large numbers of casualties and the development of a well-designed treatment delivery system.