Pest risk assessment.

Abstract

Abstract Pest risk analyses follow the same basic steps they are addressing organisms, pathways, commodities or other situations. Those steps are: * Stage 1. Initiation - where we identify organisms and pathways that may be considered for pest risk assessment in relation to the identified PRA area, and we describing the scope and purpose of the PRA; * Stage 2. Pest risk assessment including: * Pest categorization; * Assessing likelihood; * Estimating consequences; * Stage 3. Pest risk management. Stage 1 initiation and Stage 2 pest risk assessment were detailed in this chapter. In assessing likelihood of introduction and spread, we assess the likelihood the pest will: * Be associated with pathways that could lead to introduction; * Survive existing pest management procedures; * Remain with the pathway at origin; * Escape detection (either pre- or postentry); * Survive transit or movement to the PRA area; * Find a favourable location in the pest risk analysis area; * Find suitable host material in the pest risk analysis area; * Overcome biotic and abiotic resistance (e.g. find suitable environment); * Be able to reproduce and spread. Estimating consequences includes looking at direct and indirect consequences, and both market and non-market effects. The magnitude of consequences is dependent on both the time horizon for the pest risk analysis and the ability of the pest to spread. A range of methods are used to estimate consequences - and the method selected depends on the availability of information, and the specific application of the pest risk analysis. In all cases - for likelihood of introduction and spread, as well as estimating consequences - assumptions and uncertainty should be clearly described.