Abstract
Following the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, most nations made commitments within their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. However, these commitments need to be assessed in relation with ground truth, including bio-physical and socio-economic limits to climate action. We propose a new framework for monitoring climate action by countries/regions, based on four dimensions—intent, need, scope and readiness for implementing adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. While “intent” reflects intended climate action by countries such as those mentioned in NDCs or NAPs (National Adaptation Plans) and NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions), “need” highlights vulnerability of a country's agriculture to climate change and historical GHG emissions. The third dimension, “scope”, is related to the biophysical opportunities and limits to adapt or to mitigate. Finally, the “readiness” dimension considers a country's current ability to implement various adaptation/mitigation actions and policies. The framework is illustrated with a global analysis, using selected indicators for each of these dimensions. Results indicate that 61 countries globally (including key food producers) should consider corrective action in their adaptation priorities. The framework presented in this paper can serve as a monitoring and evaluation mechanism for NDC implementation and tracking progress.
Highlights
Recent studies project a significant impact of climate change on food systems including gradual changes in climate and more frequent extreme weather events (IPCC, 2021)
The framework helps in understanding the alignment of adaptation and mitigation actions planned in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with ground reality, and coun tries implementation potential to achieve the goals of the Paris Agree ment
We focus on climate action required until the 2050s, as this period is critical to keep planetary changes within envi ronmental limits (Rogelj et al, 2016; Steffen et al, 2015) and supporting sustainable development
Summary
Recent studies project a significant impact of climate change on food systems including gradual changes in climate and more frequent extreme weather events (IPCC, 2021). Agriculture, and other land-use activities account for 23% of anthropogenic emis sions (Rivera et al, 2019) Rising to these challenges requires adaptation and mitigation actions at different scales by stakeholders (Bapna et al, 2019; UNFCC, 2017). Agriculture is one of the critical sectors in prioritizing national mitigation and adaptation plans across the NDCs for 148 and 131 countries respectively (FAO, 2016) This intent is very encouraging, implementing these actions is highly contingent upon the alignment of critical drivers which affect their feasibility. The framework is aimed at aligning national policies (NDCs) towards common collective climate goals and enables a global assess ment of adaptation and mitigation actions in the agriculture sector. The framework can act as a diagnostic tool to identify priority areas for climate action and can be used to monitor and periodically track climate policies for agriculture
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