Persistent Behavior of Low-energy Solar Energetic Particles Observed by Parker Solar Probe During Orbit 15

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Abstract The paper develops a new statistical method for forecasting the arrival time and maximum flux of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. We recently showed the persistent behavior of the SEP time series during SEP events. In that study, we also used persistence to determine the onset time (OT) of an SEP event and suggested using the entropy change in a time domain called natural time under time reversal ΔS as a way to estimate the maximum SEP flux of the ongoing SEP event. Here, we use EPI-Lo data for H+ below 2 MeV over the whole Orbit 15 from the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (IS⊙IS) instrument suite on board NASA’s Parker Solar Probe to investigate the broader applicability of these methods. We clearly demonstrate that during SEP events the corresponding time series is persistent and are able to employ the persistence-based OT method to predict SEP events. We find a prediction rate greater than 87.5% (14 out of the 16 SEP events) and a false alarm rate below 2.2%. These values when inserted in the receiver operating characteristics plane indicate that this method is highly statistically significant. Finally, we develop a relationship between the maximum SEP flux and the minimum of ΔS, allowing us to provide a prediction of the future maximum SEP flux during an ongoing event.

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  • 10.7498/aps.70.20201800
Statistical analysis of characteristics of classified type II radio bursts and their associated solar energetic particle events
  • Dec 30, 2020
  • Acta Physica Sinica
  • Cong Zhu + 3 more

In this paper, we investigate 273 type II radio burst events detected by Wind, STEREO spacecraft from January 2010 to March 2018 during the 24th solar cycle. We classify all events as five groups or sub-types according to their starting and ending frequencies, and then analyze the observed characteristics of each group of type II radio bursts and the correlation between the occurrence of solar energetic particle (SEP) events and the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) or type II radio bursts. What we find is as follows. 1) In each group of type II radio burst events, the CME speed (<i>v</i>), width (WD), mass (<i>m</i>), and kinetic energy (<i>E</i><sub>k</sub>) associated with SEP events are generally greater than those with no SEP events, indicating that the generation of SEP events requires a fast and wide energetic CME eruption. 2) Compared with type II radio bursts starting from the DH band, type II radio bursts starting from the metric band have a higher proportion of large SEP events. Multi-band type II radio bursts are more likely to produce SEP events than single-band events, where M-DH-KM type II bursts have the highest proportion of SEP events (73%), and the DH IIs only have the lowest one (19%). 3) In each kind of type II radio bursts, the type IIs with SEP events usually have higher starting frequencies (lower shock forming heights), lower ending frequencies (higher ending heights) and longer durations than those with no SEP events; coronal shock waves that are easy to produce SEP events (especially large SEP events) generally begin to form at a lower height (such as < 3<i>R</i><sub>s</sub>, <i>R</i><sub>s</sub>: solar radius), and are sustained to a much larger height (such as > 30<i>R</i><sub>s</sub>). 4) There exists a strong negative correlation between the duration and the ending frequency of type II radio burst (<i>cc</i> = –0.93). The proportion of SEP events increases with the increase of the duration of type II radio burst, and decreases with the increase of the ending frequency, which largely depends on the CME speed and other properties. The results of this paper further show that the generation of SEP events is greatly related to the sub-types and characteristics of type II radio bursts. The higher the starting frequencies and the lower the ending frequencies of type II radio bursts, such as M-DH-KM type II bursts, of which the CME drives to forming shock waves at a very low height and propagates to a very large height, the longer the duration of the shock, the longer the time it takes to accelerate the particles, and the greater the probability of SEP events (especially large SEP events) is.

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Radiation environment on TGO Mars orbit during solar particle events in January-October 2024. Corresponding solar eruptions and GOES proton fluxes data.
  • Mar 1, 2025
  • Life sciences in space research
  • Jordanka Semkova + 18 more

The dosimeter Liulin-MO for measuring the radiation environment on board the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) is a module in the Fine Resolution Epithermal Neutron Detector (FREND). A number of solar energetic particle (SEP) events were observed in Mars orbit from July 2021 to 2024 during the increasing phase and close to the maximum of the 25th solar cycle activity. The results from the SEPs measurements obtained in 2021-2023 by Liulin-MO have been previously reported. Here we present the Liulin-MO results from the observation of the radiation parameters of the SEP events during January- October 2024. The most powerful SEP event registered up to now in TGO orbit started on 20 May 2024. The maximum dose rate during this SEP event has been 2800 ± 280 µGy h-1 and the maximum particle flux - 383 ± 19 cm-2 s-1. The total event lasted for about 64 hours up to 24 May with a long tail of increased dose rates and fluxes. The total dose from SEPs for the 64 hours of the main phase of the SEP event was 24.7 ± 2.5 mGy. The total dose from SEPs during this event is equal to the dose from the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) received for about 200 days at this phase of solar cycle 25. The total dose from all SEPs during January - September 2024 is 36.6 mGy (in Si), which is approximately equal to the dose received from GCR for the same period. The observations of SEPs in Mars orbit are compared to the observations during the same periods of proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellite in Earth orbit. The results show that some of the SEPs observed in Mars orbit, excluding the biggest SEP events of 20-24 May and 05-07 September, are also seen in the GOES proton fluxes data. SEP events recorded both in Mars and Earth orbits are related to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The paper shows that responsible for most of the SEP events registered both in the Liulin-MO data and in the GOES proton fluxes data are halo CMEs. The paper also shows that the sources of the three most powerful SEP events in Mars orbit - those of 20 May, 23 July and 05 September - are halo CMEs from the far side of the Sun. Some of these CMEs are associated with major X class far-side flares. Long-term investigations of the GCRs radiation parameters in Mars orbit show that in August 2024 (the last month of our data with no recorded SEP events) the dose rate was 6.5 ± 0.65 µGy h-1 and the particle flux - 1.4 ± 0.07 cm-2 s-1. These values are about 40 % of the corresponding maximal values measured by Liulin-MO during the solar cycle 24 minimum in March 2020. The above results show the importance of long-term measurements (at least during a full solar cycle) of the radiation conditions in Mars vicinity. Such measurements will make it possible to obtain the data necessary for the planning of future manned and robotic missions, as well as for the selection of the best time interval in the solar cycle for a manned flight to the planet.

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  • Cite Count Icon 22
  • 10.1051/swsc/2018033
Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with Flare X-ray peak ratios
  • Jan 1, 2018
  • Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
  • Stephen W Kahler + 1 more

Solar flare X-ray peak fluxes and fluences in the 0.1–0.8 nm band are often used in models to forecast solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Garcia (2004) [Forecasting methods for occurrence and magnitude of proton storms with solar soft X rays, Space Weather, 2, S02002, 2004] used ratios of the 0.05–0.4 and 0.1–0.8 nm bands of the X-ray instrument on the GOES spacecraft to plot inferred peak flare temperatures versus peak 0.1–0.8 nm fluxes for flares from 1988 to 2002. Flares associated with E > 10 MeV SEP events of >10 proton flux units (pfu) had statistically lower peak temperatures than those without SEP events and therefore offered a possible empirical forecasting tool for SEP events. We review the soft and hard X-ray flare spectral variations as SEP event forecast tools and repeat Garcia’s work for the period 1998–2016, comparing both the peak ratios and the ratios of the preceding 0.05–0.4 nm peak fluxes to the later 0.1–0.8 nm peak fluxes of flares >M3 to the occurrence of associated SEP events. We divide the events into eastern and western hemisphere sources and compare both small (1.2–10 pfu) and large (≥300 pfu) SEP events with those of >10 pfu. In the western hemisphere X-ray peak ratios are statistically lower for >10 pfu SEP events than for non-SEP events and are even lower for the large (>300 pfu) events. The small SEP events, however, are not distinguished from the non-SEP events. We discuss the possible connections between the flare X-ray peak ratios and associated coronal mass ejections that are presumed to be the sources of the SEPs.

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  • 10.7498/aps.69.20200041
Statistical analysis of the relationship between type II radio enhancement and solar energetic particle event
  • Jan 1, 2020
  • Acta Physica Sinica
  • Kun-Lun Zhou + 5 more

In this paper, we investigated 82 type-II radio burst events detected by some ground stations Learmonth, YNAO, and BIRS and spacecraft Wind/WAVES, STEREO/WAVES from January 2007 to December 2015. And we identified 39 events associated with radio enhancement and 43 events without enhancement. We found that: 1) The CME velocity, mass, kinetic energy and flare class with respect to type II radio enhancement events were generally higher than that of no enhancement events, and these properties in the solar energetic particle (SEP) events were significantly higher than that no SEP event, regardless of whether radio enhancement or not. 2) As shown in the characteristic time analysis, the initial release time of SEPs is generally earlier than the start time of radio enhancement, so we can the radio enhancement is only as a signature of the shock enhancement rather than the direct generator of SEP events. 3) Whether radio enhancement or not, the onset height of type IIs associated with SEP event is slightly lower than that of event without SEP. For the absence height, the SEP events are significantly higher than the no-SEP events, and that the absence height of enhancement events are also distinctly higher than that non-enhancement events, which reveals that the enhanced CME shock characterized by enhanced radio burst can keep propagating to more higher or further space. 4) When one fast and wide CME fully sweeps over another slow and narrow preceding CME, CME interaction can more easily generate radio enhancement, but no distinctive difference between SEP events and non-SEP events. So the results of this paper reveal that radio enhancement can be regarded as a manifestation of CME shock becoming strong during interacting with other CME, and the enhanced shock can accelerate the particle to generate large SEP events more easily. However, the type II radio enhancement is not the direct producer or causer that generate large SEP event.

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  • 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18931
Investigating electrons in SEP events observed by Solar Orbiter/EPD/STEP and Solar Orbiter/SWA/EAS with Velocity Dispersion Analysis 
  • Mar 15, 2025
  • Erik Jentsch + 2 more

The Sun constantly emits a stream of charged particles, e.g. electrons and protons which is called the solar wind. In addition to this low energetic background, Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events occur and are observed by Solar Orbiter in the inner heliosphere. Here, we are interested in the electron component of SEP events. The Electron Analyzer System (EAS) and the SupraThermal Electron Proton (STEP) sensor on Solar Orbiter measure electrons in the energy range from 1 eV to 5 keV and 2 keV to 60 keV, respectively. The field of view of STEP overlaps with the field of view of the EAS 1 sensor head. SEP events are identified in the STEP data and compared with the electron signal in the EAS data. We utilize this overlap to evaluate the electron measurements in STEP and EAS for at least one selected SEP event. During electron SEP events and times where most of the higher energy bins in EAS 1 are populated, the one dimensional differential energy flux spectra show an overlap within the respective uncertainties. SEP events typically show a velocity dispersion. In a Velocity Dispersion Analysis (VDA), for each energy channel an onset time for the event is determined. Due to the reduced quantum efficiency in the highest energy channels of EAS, higher fluxes are required to detect an SEP event in EAS than in STEP. To increase the signal to noise ratio for the SEP events, EAS bins in all three measurement dimensions, i.e. azimuth, elevation and energy, are chosen depending on the pitch angle coverage of the event. Anisotropic SEP events cover fewer instrumental bins in EAS than isotropic events. To test the uncertainty of the onset times depending on the method several approaches are compared, including a manual identification and the Poisson CUSUM method on the EAS Level 1 count data. The selected event illustrates the importance of considering an energy dependent minimal detection threshold in VDA since VDA relies on the assumption that the earliest detected particles for each energy are indeed the first particles that reach the spacecraft. The VDA is then applied to the STEP data and the results are compared with the EAS results. The instrumental and quantum efficiency driven onset times influence the approximation of the release time of the accelerated particles at the acceleration time, i.e. in the solar corona while neglecting transport effects along the way to the spacecraft. All in all combining EAS and STEP gives us several advantages. (1) It allows us to evaluate the calibration of both instruments. (2) With EAS the VDA is extended to lower energies. (3) In addition the full 360° field of view of EAS helps us to evaluate the anisotropy of SEP events outside the field of view of STEP which are strong enough to produce a signal in the higher EAS energy bins.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 245
  • 10.1029/2000ja002231
The correlation between solar energetic particle peak intensities and speeds of coronal mass ejections: Effects of ambient particle intensities and energy spectra
  • Oct 1, 2001
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
  • S W Kahler

The correlation of peak intensities of solar energetic particle (SEP) events with the speeds of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is understood to be a result of SEP acceleration at shocks driven by the CMEs. However, the peak SEP intensities associated with CMEs of a given speed vary over ∼ 4 orders of magnitude. We examine a database of 71 E > 10 MeV SEP events observed with the GOES satellite to determine whether enhanced ambient SEP intensities at the times of the CMEs and/or variations among SEP event spectra contribute to the large range of peak SEP event intensities. A statistical analysis shows that enhanced ambient SEP intensities may be a contributing factor to the range of SEP events of higher peak intensities, probably by providing sources of energetic seed particles for the shock acceleration process. Another factor is the variation of energy spectra among the SEP events, which generally have harder spectra with increasing peak intensities. The observed increase of peak SEP intensities and hardening of peak SEP spectra with increasingly westward solar source regions is only a minor factor in the range of SEP peak intensities in the CME speed correlation.

  • Preprint Article
  • 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6724
Longitudinal Extent of 3He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events near 1 AU
  • Nov 27, 2024
  • George Ho + 5 more

Ever since the first 3He-enhanced solar energetic particle (SEP) event was reported in the literature in 1970, the exact mechanism by which the isotope is enhanced orders of magnitude higher than its solar wind value remains unknown.  But the source, acceleration, and transport of SEP events can only be studied by multi-point simultaneous in-situ measurement within the heliosphere.  However, multi-spacecraft observations of 3He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) event are scarce.  Further observations are much needed in order to understand and properly constrain the source and transport of the remarkable enriched 3He SEP event. In this paper, we report six 3He-rich SEP events that were detected by ACE, STEREO and Solar Orbiter near 1 au during Solar Orbiter’s aphelion pass at the end of 2022 and early 2023.  Many of these events were detected simultaneously by at least two or three spacecraft at up to ~40° longitudal separation, while some events were detected by only a single spacecraft even though an adjacent spacecraft was less than 20° away. These fortuitous multi-spacecraft observations of 3He-rich SEP events thus provide us observational constraint on the acceleration and propagation of this special class of SEP events. In addition, we will show in this paper how multi-spacecraft measurements could also be used to constraint the solar source region of 3He-rich SEP event.

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  • Cite Count Icon 129
  • 10.5194/angeo-26-3033-2008
Coronal mass ejections, type II radio bursts, and solar energetic particle events in the SOHO era
  • Oct 15, 2008
  • Annales Geophysicae
  • N Gopalswamy + 7 more

Abstract. Using the extensive and uniform data on coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and type II radio bursts during the SOHO era, we discuss how the CME properties such as speed, width and solar-source longitude decide whether CMEs are associated with type II radio bursts and SEP events. We discuss why some radio-quiet CMEs are associated with small SEP events while some radio-loud CMEs are not associated with SEP events. We conclude that either some fast and wide CMEs do not drive shocks or they drive weak shocks that do not produce significant levels of particle acceleration. We also infer that the Alfvén speed in the corona and near-Sun interplanetary medium ranges from <200 km/s to ~1600 km/s. Radio-quiet fast and wide CMEs are also poor SEP producers and the association rate of type II bursts and SEP events steadily increases with CME speed and width (i.e. energy). If we consider western hemispheric CMEs, the SEP association rate increases linearly from ~30% for 800 km/s CMEs to 100% for ≥1800 km/s. Essentially all type II bursts in the decametre-hectometric (DH) wavelength range are associated with SEP events once the source location on the Sun is taken into account. This is a significant result for space weather applications, because if a CME originating from the western hemisphere is accompanied by a DH type II burst, there is a high probability that it will produce an SEP event.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 22
  • 10.1016/j.asr.2013.09.006
Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24
  • Sep 12, 2013
  • Advances in Space Research
  • R Chandra + 15 more

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.3847/1538-4357/abd481
Variations of Peak He/H Ratios in Solar Energetic (E > 4 MeV) Particle Events and Comparisons with Solar Wind He/H Ratios
  • Feb 1, 2021
  • The Astrophysical Journal
  • S W Kahler + 1 more

We determine solar energetic particle (SEP) event He/H peak intensity ratios A He observed in the four energy channels of the SOHO EPHIN detector covering 4–53 MeV nuc−1. Those SEP A He values range over two orders of magnitude for 43 large western hemisphere SEP events through the period 1997–2017. A He of each SEP event are compared with average solar wind (SW) A He values measured for 8 hr after the SEP event onsets with the solar wind experiment Faraday Cup instrument on Wind. A He in the 4–8 and 8–21 MeV nuc−1 range are significantly correlated with SW A He (CC = 0.45 and 0.41), but less so in the 21–41 and 41–53 MeV nuc−1 range, where uncertainties of the A He values are higher. Median SEP A He values decline slightly with increasing energy and are ≤0.5 their associated SW values. Both median SEP and SW A He decline by a factor of ∼2 from the 27 events of cycle 23 to the 16 of cycle 24. Those results suggest a connection between the SW and the seed population of SEP events. An unexpected result is that SEP A He increases with event peak intensities in our 43 events as He peak intensities increase faster than those of H in larger events.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 280
  • 10.1029/2004ja010602
Intensity variation of large solar energetic particle events associated with coronal mass ejections
  • Dec 1, 2004
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
  • N Gopalswamy + 4 more

We studied the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with large solar energetic particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 23 (1996–2002) in order to determine what property of the solar eruptions might order the SEP intensity. The SEP events were divided into three groups: (1) events in which the primary CME was preceded by one or more wide CMEs from the same solar source, (2) events with no such preceding CMEs, and (3) events in which the primary CME might have interacted with a streamer or with a nearby halo CME. The SEP intensities are distinct for groups 1 and 2 although the CME properties were nearly identical. Group 3 was similar to group 1. The primary findings of this study are as follows: (1) Higher SEP intensity results whenever a CME is preceded by another wide CME from the same source region. (2) The average flare size was also larger for high‐intensity SEP events. (3) The intensity of SEP events with preceding CMEs showed a tighter correlation with CME speed. The extent of scatter in the CME speed versus SEP intensity plots was reduced when various subgroups were considered separately. (4) The intensities of energetic electrons were better correlated with flare size than with CME speed. (5) The SEP intensity showed poor correlation with the flare size, except for group 3 events. Since only a third of the events did not have preceding CMEs, we conclude that the majority of SEP producing CMEs propagate through the near‐Sun interplanetary medium severely disturbed and distorted by the preceding CMEs. Furthermore, the preceding CMEs are faster and wider on the average, so they may provide seed particles for CME‐driven shocks that follow. Therefore we conclude that the differing intensities of SEP events in the two groups may not have resulted due to the inherent properties of the CMEs. The presence of preceding CMEs seems to be the discriminating characteristic of the high‐ and low‐intensity SEP events.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1016/j.asr.2023.03.039
Chemical composition of solar energetic particle events and their association with ground level enhancement
  • Apr 6, 2023
  • Advances in Space Research
  • Jongil Jung + 2 more

Chemical composition of solar energetic particle events and their association with ground level enhancement

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 5
  • 10.1007/s11207-013-0427-0
Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?
  • Nov 8, 2013
  • Solar Physics
  • S W Kahler + 3 more

The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E≈ 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.

  • Book Chapter
  • 10.1007/978-1-4939-1182-0_16
Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?
  • Jan 1, 2013
  • S W Kahler + 3 more

The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E≈ 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.KeywordsEnergetic particles – accelerationMagnetic fields – modelsCoronal mass ejections – low coronal signatures

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 13
  • 10.1002/2015sw001222
Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts
  • Oct 1, 2015
  • Space Weather
  • S W Kahler + 1 more

The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X‐ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time‐critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X‐ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X‐ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

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