Abstract
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
Highlights
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon
Prior to the International Polar Year (IPY, 2007–2009), ground temperatures were measured in boreholes scattered across permafrost regions
That ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude increased in all permafrost zones on Earth, that is continuous and discontinuous permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as permafrost in the mountains and in Antarctica
Summary
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. The thermal state of permafrost is sensitive to changing climatic conditions and in particular to rising air temperatures and changing snow regimes[2,3,4,5,6,7] This is important, because over the past few decades, the atmosphere in polar and high elevation regions has warmed faster than elsewhere[8]. We compiled a time series for the decade from 2007 to 2016 that comprises mean annual ground temperatures T, determined from temperatures measured in boreholes within the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones in the Arctic (including the Subarctic), Antarctica and at high elevations outside the polar regions. That ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude increased in all permafrost zones on Earth, that is continuous and discontinuous permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as permafrost in the mountains and in Antarctica. The observed trend followed increased air temperature and snow thickness, each in varying degrees depending on the region
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