Performance evaluation of internal quality control rules, EWMA, CUSUM, and the novel machine learning model

Abstract

Abstract Objectives The present study set out to build a machine learning model to incorporate conventional quality control (QC) rules, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), and cumulative sum (CUSUM) with random forest (RF) algorithm to achieve better performance and to evaluate the performances the models using computer simulation to aid laboratory professionals in QC procedure planning. Methods Conventional QC rules, EWMA, CUSUM, and RF models were implemented on the simulation data using an in-house algorithm. The models’ performances were evaluated on 170,000 simulated QC results using outcome metrics, including the probability of error detection (Ped), probability of false rejection (Pfr), average run length (ARL), and power graph. Results The highest Pfr (0.0404) belonged to the 1–2s rule. The 1–3s rule could not detect errors with a 0.9 Ped up to 4 SD of systematic error. The random forest model had the highest Ped for systematic errors lower than 1 SD. However, ARLs of the model require the combined utility of the RF model with conventional QC rules having lower ARLs or more than one QC measurement is required. Conclusions The RF model presented in this study showed acceptable Ped for most degrees of systematic error. The outcome metrics established in this study will help laboratory professionals planning internal QC.