Abstract
Poverty is a major problem in a country. The Indonesian government has made various efforts to tackle the problem of poverty. The main problem faced in poverty alleviation is the large number of people living below the poverty line. Therefore, this study aims to predict the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for the next three periods as one of the efforts that can be made by the government in poverty alleviation. The method used in this study is a one-parameter linear double exponential smoothing from Brown. The software used in this research is Zaitun Time Series and Microsoft Excel. The steps taken are determining the forecasting objectives, plotting time series data, determining the appropriate method, determining the optimum parameter value, calculating the single exponential smoothing value, calculating double exponential smoothing value, calculate the smoothing constant value, calculate the trend coefficient value and perform forecasting. Based on the calculation results, the optimum alpha parameter value is 0.7 with MAPE value of 1.67866%, which means that this forecasting model has a very good performance. The forecast value of the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for 2021 is Rp. 396,516, in 2022 it is Rp. 417,818, and in 2023 it is Rp. 439,120.
Highlights
The Indonesian government has made various efforts to tackle the problem of poverty
This study aims to predict the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for the three periods as one of the efforts that can be made by the government in poverty alleviation
Based on the calculation results, the optimum alpha parameter value is 0.7 with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 1.67866%, which means that this forecasting model has a very good performance
Summary
Kemiskinan merupakan permasalahan utama dalam pembangunan ekonomi di negara berkembang seperti Indonesia. Berdasarkan data BPS, angka kemiskinan di Kabupaten Purbalingga yaitu presentase penduduk miskin mengalami kenaikan dari tahun 2019 yaitu 15,03% menjadi 15,90% pada tahun 2020 dengan garis kemiskinan dari tahun ke tahun selalu mengalami kenaikan. Untuk meramalkan garis kemiskinan pada masa yang akan datang dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai metode peramalan, salah satunya yaitu exponential smoothing. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, penulis tertarik untuk meramalkan garis kemiskinan di Kabupaten Purbalingga tahun 2021 sampai dengan tahun 2023 menggunakan metode double exponential smoothing linier satu parameter dari Brown. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat digunakan sebagai salah satu masukan atau bahan pertimbangan bagi pemerintah dalam mengambil keputusan atau menetapkan kebijakan dalam upaya penanggulangan masalah kemiskinan di Kabupaten Purbalingga. Membuat dan menganalisis plot time series dari data garis kemiskinan di Kabupaten Purbalingga tahun 2011 sampai dengan tahun 2020; 3. Bahan iyang idibutukan idalam ipenelitian iini iadalah idata, ijurnal-jurnal, skripsi, iartikel, idan ireferensi ilainnya
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