PCN63 - Reliability of Manufacturers’ Budget Impact Estimates For Melanoma Drugs in Poland

Abstract

To compare the total value of payer's expenditures on vemurafenib and ipilimumab in patients with advanced melanoma estimated in the manufacturers’ Budget Impact Analyses (BIAs) submitted with the reimbursement applications to AOTMiT and actual expenditures of the National Health Fund (NHF). Annual public payer’s expenditures estimated in manufacturers’ BIAs for vemurafenib and ipilimumab and actual expenditures reported by the NHF were compared. RSSs were not taken into account. Analysed drugs were chosen on the basis of the same indication and financing through the therapeutic programmes in Poland. Actual expenditures were taken from the financial reports of the NHF for the first and second year (actual data on 9 months for expenditures were extrapolated to one year) of reimbursement for each drug. For vemurafenib and ipilimumab in patients with advanced melanoma, the sum of total expenditures estimated in BIAs submitted with the reimbursement applications was 123,4 million PLN in the first year and 146,7 million PLN in the second year, and they were higher (96,9 million PLN) and lower (153,8 million PLN) respectively in the first and in the second year than the actual expenditures reported by the NHF. The expenditures estimated in BIAs were overestimated by 27,4% in the first year of reimbursement and were underestimated by 4,7% in the second year of reimbursement. In the case of drugs chosen for this analysis, total payer's expenditures estimated in BIAs submitted with the reimbursement applications were overestimated in comparison to the real life expenditures of the NHF in Poland.