Pavement Performance Prediction of Semarang–Solo Toll Road, Indonesia, using Markov Chain Model

The performance of the financial sector is of paramount importance in the development of an economy. The financial sector serves as the primary conduit between those who save and those who invest. By virtue of the information available regarding both groups of economic agents, this conduit facilitates the reduction of information asymmetries and enables more expedient investment targeting in specific sectors deemed crucial for economic growth. For decades, research has been conducted on the relationship between the financial sector and economic growth in individual countries or groups of countries with the aim of providing governments with recommendations on specific measures that will improve the welfare of economic agents and achieve higher economic growth. It also examines whether there is a link between economic growth and financial sector development, or vice versa, from economic growth to financial sector development. In light of the pivotal role of financial intermediaries in the economic advancement of nations, this study seeks to examine and evaluate the extent to which the financial sector in EU countries fosters economic growth, or vice versa. Furthermore, the study examines and assesses the extent to which the financial sector contributes to economic growth, in addition to the direction of the relationship between the two. The data set encompasses the period between 2010 and 2022. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, a panel model is applied to the EU countries. Two indicators are employed to capture financial sector activity: namely, banking efficiency and market capitalisation. The non-parametric DEA method is employed for the purpose of more fully capturing and characterising the EU banking sector, with the objective of measuring banking efficiency. This study eschews the use of traditional indicators in favour of a more complex indicator, namely technical efficiency, which is measured by DEA. This approach allows for the conversion of inputs and outputs into a single measure of bank efficiency. In order to account for the growing role of capital markets in the decades following the global financial crisis of 2008, the estimated models include market capitalisation as an additional factor. The results of the balanced panel model estimation confirm that the EU countries are characterised by the "supply-side hypothesis", i.e., financial intermediaries are important for economic development, and the estimated relationships are positive. However, the models highlight the pivotal role of the banking sector in driving economic growth in the older EU countries, as market capitalisation has been demonstrated to have a limited impact on economic growth in these countries. This suggests that those responsible for economic policy should prioritise the improvement of the banking sector and encourage banks to play a more active role in intermediation, with the aim of achieving economic growth.

Stochastic Performance and Maintenance Optimization Models for Pavement Infrastructure Management

The United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) involve society, economy, and environment, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an important path to implement the SDGs. Moreover, the BRI is a vision for economic development of countries along the route. Although many studies documented the effect of the BRI on environment and economic performance, few studies have discussed the effect of the BRI on social and economic benefits. Therefore, we introduce the public health expenditure to explore the relationship between the BRI and the public health and economic growth of countries along the route from the dual perspective of social development and economic growth. Based on a panel data from 171 countries from 2010 to 2018, the current research explores whether the BRI can boost public health and promote economic growth in the belt-road countries. As a result, we found that the BRI boosted the expenditure of public health and effectively spurred economic growth in the belt-road countries. Furthermore, the effect of the BRI on the economic growth in the countries along the route depends on the level of public health expenditure in each country; the positive effect of the BRI on economic growth is significant when the public health expenditure level is moderate instead of low or high. The findings provide theoretical and practical insights into the SDGs of the BRI.

In sustainable development studies, a key question is how the abundance of natural resources influences long-run economic growth. However, there is no consensus on this issue. Some literature suggests a negative impact, while other studies find no effect at all, and other research indicates a positive impact. This study aims to examine the relationship between natural resource rents, renewable energy, and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries over the period from 1990 to 2023. The study utilizes the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to provide reliable findings across different quantiles. We also incorporate a series of control variables, including capital, labor force participation, non-renewable energy, and trade openness. The findings indicate that natural resources rent enhances economic growth in GCC countries, supporting the Rostow hypothesis. Although renewable energy has a positive impact on economic growth, it does not have an effect on natural resource rents. Additionally, capital, labor force participation, non-renewable energy, and trade openness play a critical role in raising economic growth in these countries. Based on the empirical results, this study provides several valuable recommendations for policymakers to enhance the management of natural resources in GCC countries.

Subject. The article addresses the impact of human and physical capital on economic growth in BRICS and ASEAN countries. Objectives. The aims of the study include to show that countries with developing economic potential are gradually moving towards a period of economic slowdown, to determine the role of human and physical capital in economic growth, their features and differences. Methods. The study employs the content analysis of available sources, comparative analysis, and statistical data examination. Results. The assessment of the impact of human and physical capital in BRICS and ASEAN countries with developing economic potential shows that economic growth is more sensitive to changes in human capital than to physical capital. There are differences in the impact of human capital on economic growth in countries due to differences in the level of average income per capita, insufficiently effective use of human capital. Conclusions. It is crucial to increase investments in human capital development in BRICS and ASEAN countries. Moreover, the goals of investment in human capital and the effective level of investment should be clearly defined. In order to increase the efficiency of the use of human capital, it is necessary to develop policies aimed at increasing the labor force participation and employment in the economy.

The Mamminasata Urban Area which is centered in Makassar City has a fivesection crossroads at the north gate of the city, where two of which, the Sutami toll and Perintis Kemerdekaan non-toll road sections lead to the city center while the gate is accessed by 18 districts and all provinces in Sulawesi. As alternative roads, the two is generally described as follows: The distance of the gate to the city by the toll road is 17 km while that of by Jalan Perintis Kemerdekaan is 24 Km or 7 km longer than the toll road. The toll road is smooth during the day while the Perintis Kemerdekaan non-toll road section is congested at the peak hours in the morning, afternoon and evening with the potential resulting in far different costs and travel time. The results of the survey indicate 2: 5 in average ratio suggesting that 5 vehicles enter the city center through Perintis Kemerdekaan Non-Toll Road while 2 vehicles opt for Sutami Toll Road. This study was aimed at (1) comparing the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) from and to the city center through toll roads or non-toll roads, and (2) analyzing the tendency of the number of travellers to choose through toll roads and non-toll roads based on their orientation to the unit of cost to incur. The mathematical and statistical analysis process was done by considering all components of fixed and variable costs. The analysis also considers the use of the elemental mode of driving mode, the average speed model and the trans-log and Cobb-Douglas models. The results obtained illustrate that the value of vehicle operating costs derived from the two road sections amount to Rp. 25,462 and Rp. 25,500 suggesting insignificant difference. Despite similar travel cost between the two, the toll road is considered more beneficial in terms of the value of time and energy for motorists travelling to the city center of Makassar.

Considering the potential factors that might generate economic growth, a target for any economy, this paper identified some determinants of economic growth in the countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE countries) that are member states of the European Union. The foreign direct investment was the most important determinant of economic growth in most of the countries (Bulgaria, Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania) in the period 2003-2016, according to Bayesian bridge regressions. The indicators related to the level and the quality of labour resources proved to be insignificant in explaining the economic growth in these countries. Moreover, in Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, the government expenditure on education had a negative effect on economic growth.

The relationship between growth in export and economic growth is still a current issue in both the theoretical and empirical literature. Besides, there are also non-economic factors that determine economic growth in a country, namely political stability. This study aims to examine the impact of export and political stability on economic growth in D8 member countries. The research on the development of the D8 country's economy is still minimal, so this research expected to be able to contribute to drafting policies for D8 member countries. By using panel regression, this research finds that there is no impact between export on economic growth. However, political stability had an impact on economic growth in developing-8 countries. This result implies that the government should increase political stability to accelerate growth

Purpose: The purpose of this research article is to investigate the impact of bank profitability on the economic growth of 16 Central and Eastern European countries over the period from 1999 to 2022. The study aims to determine whether higher bank profitability has a positive influence on economic growth, challenging the notion that low bank profitability hinders economic growth. Design/methodology/approach: Our study employs an extensive empirical analysis, utilizing a range of econometric methods. We explore the relationship between bank profitability and economic growth, taking into account various factors and control variables. This includes assessing the impact of bank profitability on economic growth by considering a diverse set of economic indicators and factors influencing the banking sector. Findings: Our research consistently reveals a statistically and economically significant positive relationship between bank profitability and economic growth. Specifically, a one percent increase in the return on assets of banks is associated with a notable increase in economic growth, falling within the range of 0.534 to 0.625 percentage points. These findings suggest that higher bank profitability contributes positively to the economic growth of the studied Central and Eastern European countries. Research limitations/implications: While this study provides valuable insights into the relationship between bank profitability and economic growth, it has certain limitations. Future research in this area could delve deeper into the nuanced relationships between different dimensions of bank profitability and economic performance. Additionally, further investigations could explore the effects of varying ownership structures and competition dynamics on economic growth in these countries. This acknowledges the need for more in-depth research and understanding of the complex interplay between bank profitability and economic growth. Originality/value: This research contributes to the existing literature by shedding light on the positive impact of bank profitability on economic growth in Central and Eastern European countries. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, financial institutions, and researchers interested in understanding the dynamics between the banking sector and economic development in this region. The study's originality lies in challenging conventional wisdom and highlighting the potentially positive role of bank profitability in economic growth, thereby providing practical and policy-relevant implications.

Civil conflict is the nation’s most important historical event, and it became more frequent in countries already emerged from previous conflicts. High economic growth, as well as other institutional procedures, is key to break this conflict trap. Thus, the current article explores the role decentralization may play to enhance economic growth in post-civil conflict countries. In order to avoid untrue peaceful cases, the article adopted a strict criterion of post-conflict periods, leading to a small dataset. Distinguishing between two forms of decentralization and using two equations with different techniques, the article finds a hampering effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth in countries emerging from civil conflicts, while it finds insignificant mixed effects of political decentralization. These findings support the distinction made between the real de facto decentralization and the official de jure one. They validate the belief that although central authorities in many countries pretend to apply decentralization, they limit its effectiveness by some legal procedures creating “fake” decentralization.

Earlier investigations have concentrated on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the importance of the stability of such relationship. This paper re-investigates empirically the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five countries in the MENA region: Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey, using the Granger causality technique. This study covers the sample period from 1980:Q1 to 2012:Q4. With the full sample, we find evidence supporting the ELG hypothesis only in Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey. Nonetheless, our time-varying Granger causality results have significantly validated the evidence of instability of the ELG hypothesis in these MENA countries. Therefore, changes in policies and regulations to improve the export sector of these countries will not ultimately pay off in terms of achieving high rates of stable economic growth in these countries. Policymakers in these countries should search for the alternative catalyst of growth to continuously as well as to effectively promote long-term economic growth in these countries.

Potential financing sources of investment and economic growth in North African countries: A causality analysis

Makalah ini bertujuan mengkaji corak hubungan antara pembangunan ekonomi dengan pertumbuhan industri pelancong di beberapa negara utama ASEAN iaitu Malaysia, Thailand, Singapura dan Indonesia. Khususnya kajian cuba menguji hipotesis sama ada perkembangan industri pelancongan sebagai perangsang kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi (tourism-led economic growth - (TLG) atau pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai perangsang kepada perkembangan industri pelancongan (economic growth-led tourism – GLT). Bagi tujuan tersebut, analisis ekonometrik yang menggunakan kaedah ujian kointegrasi dan penyebab Granger digunakan. Hasil kajian mendapati wujud hubungan satu hala antara perkembangan industry pelancongan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Bagi negara Thailand dan Indonesia didapati pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai penyebab kepada perkembangan industry pelancongan (GLT), sementara bagi Malaysia dan Singapura pula perkembangan industri pelancongan adalah penyebab kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi (TLG). Makalah ini mengaplikasikan teori dan realiti iaitu, penggunaan pendekatan penyebab Granger dalam menganalisis realiti industri pelancongan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

This paper offers an empirical examination of the relationship between government spending’s, income inequality, and economic growth by using the case of 19 Asian countries from 2002 to 2017. For this purpose, the paper uses robust difference-GMM estimation and panel granger causality test. We found that gross domestic investment and regulatory quality are the main variables that contribute to these countries’ economic growth. While current government consumption reduces economic growth. Also, government expenditure on education and regulatory quality granger cause economic growth in these countries. However, the effect of government expenditure on education on economic growth is not significant. So, to increase their economic growth, this study recommends these countries’ governments to encourage gross domestic investment, maintain regulatory quality and reduce their current consumption. This study also concludes that income inequality has no impact on these countries’ economic growth for this period.

Causal nexus between air transportation and economic growth in BRICS countries