Patterns of bilateral military alliances formation and political regimes in Central Europe, 1962-2003

Abstract

This study examines the dynamics of political regimes as pivotal factors shaping bilateral military alliances (BMAs) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) from the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) to 2003. Using data from the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) and the Polity IV databases, the research investigates statistical correlations between the formation of military alliances, their typologies, and political regime-type dynamics. Research questions include exploring the key characteristics of BMAs, the political regime nature of dyads, correlations between alliance durability and democracy levels, and the impact of regime changes on alliance phases. A sample of 88 BMAs is analysed, exploring hypotheses on relationships such as alliance duration, political regime congruity, member asymmetry, treaty provisions, and changes pre- and post-Cuban crisis. Key findings indicate that less democratic dyads tended to sustain longer alliances, while the hypothesis on political regime congruity in military alliances received partial support. The study contributes to understanding how political regime dynamics influence alliance formation and longevity in a region historically shaped by the Cold War geopolitical dynamics.