Partisan-Electoral Cycles in Public Employment: Evidence from Developed Democracies

Abstract

According to both early empirical findings and theoretical expectations of partisan preferences, left-wing parties in government ought to prefer higher levels of public employment for both ideological and opportunistic reasons. In contrast, using country-fixed effects in a panel of 22 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, this article finds no evidence of left-wing governments systematically increasing public employment. However, there is evidence that left-wing governments increase public employment in election years, which gives rise to an opportunistic, partisan-electoral cycle in public employment. In line with the logic of core-voter targeting and political budget cycles, incumbent left-wing parties seem to increase the number of their potential core voters when they are needed most.