Parameter uncertainty analysis for simulating streamflow in a river catchment of Vietnam

Abstract

Hydrological models play vital roles in management of water resources. However, the calibration of the hydrological models is a large challenge because of the uncertainty involved in the large number of parameters. In this study, four uncertainty analysis methods, including Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), Parameter Solution (ParaSol), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2), were employed to perform parameter uncertainty analysis of streamflow simulation in the Srepok River Catchment by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The four methods were compared in terms of the model prediction uncertainty, the model performance, and the computational efficiency. The results showed that the SUFI-2 method has the advantages in the model calibration and uncertainty analysis. This technique could be run with the smallest of simulation runs to achieve good prediction uncertainty bands and model performance. This technique could be run with the smallest of simulation runs to achieve good prediction uncertainty bands and model performance.