Abstract
The 150-km-long Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line active fault system (ISTL)in central Japan is one of the most active Quaternary fault systems inJapan. Estimated slip-rates on the fault system are as large as 10 m/ka, butthe historic seismicity has been low since 841 A.D. with no largeearthquakes recorded. The high slip rates contrast with the long time sincethe last major earthquake on the ITSL and indicates the high potential of a largeearthquake from the ISTL. Based on slip-rate estimates, more than 10 mof potential slip may have accumulated on the fault system since the 841A.D. earthquake. Recent paleoseismolgical studies on the middle andnorthern parts of the ISTL have determined that the average recurrenceinterval of surface-faulting earthquakes on the middle ISTL is 680 to 825years (Gofukuji fault) and 1258 to 1510 years in the northern ISTL. These data suggest the most recent event on both northern and middleISTL occurred in 841 A.D. The results highlight the high seismic potentialof the ISTL. Additional studies of the entire ISTL are needed to define theextent of the next rupture.
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