Abstract
Abstract Introduction: AdjuvantOnline is a web-based application designed to provide 10 years survival probability patients with breast cancer. Few validation studies have underlined some limitations, particularly an overestimation of the prognosis among certain subgroups of patients. Moreover, several predictors such as HER2 over expression status and proliferation markers have not been assessed in Adjuvant! original study. We provide the validation of AdjuvantOnline algorithm on two breast cancer datasets collected from two large European cancer centres, and we determined whether the accuracy of AdjuvantOnline is improved by others well known prognostic factors. Material and Methods: The French data set is composed of 456 women with early breast cancer, treated at the Institut Curie between 1995 and 1996. The dutch data set is composed of 295 women less that 52 years treated at the Netherlands Cancer Institute between 1984 and 1995. Agreement between observation and Adjuvant! prediction was checked by testing that the calibration slope was equal to 1. Logistic models were performed to evaluate whether risk factors adds significant prognostic information, including AdjuvantOnline a priori information as an offset. Results: Ten years survival status was known for 383 patients in the French data set and 247 patients in the Dutch data set. Adjuvant! prediction was globally well calibrated in the French data set (observed survival 86%, predicted survival 85%), but was overestimated in high grade, HER2 positive and Ki67 > 20% subgroups. HER2 status, Mitotic Index, Ki67 and treatment type were strongly associated with 10-year survival, even considering AdjuvantOnline a priori information. In the Dutch data set, the overall 10-year survival was overestimated by AdjuvantOnline (observed 66%, predicted 79%), particularly in patients less than 40 years old. Conclusion: AdjuvantOnline needs to be updated to adjust overoptimistic results in young and high grade patients, and should consider candidates, such as Ki67, HER2 and Mitotic Index. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2011;71(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-09-13.
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