Abstract

Abstract Background The guidelines recommend to determine natriuretic peptides, clinical status (NYHA classification) and comorbidities in order to predict the prognosis in patients with heart failure. The aim ofthis registry was to develop a prognostic score in chronic heart failure patients, using clinical status, comorbidities and natriuretic peptides. Methods Consecutive 1088 patients with stable chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (LVEF<40%) and mid-range EF (HFmrEF) (LVEF 40–49%) were enrolled. Two-year all-cause mortality, heart transplantation and/or LVAD implantation were defined as the primary endpoint (MACE). Results The occurrence of MACE was 14.9% and increased with higher NYHA, 4.9% (NYHA I), 11.4% (NYHA II) and 27.8% (NYHA III-IV) (p<0.001). The occurrence of MACE was 3%, 10% and 15–37% in patients with NT-proBNP levels ≤125pg/ml, 126–1000pg/ml and >1000pg/ml respectively. Discrimination abilities of NYHA and NT-proBNP were (AUC 0.670; p<0.001 and AUC 0.722; p<0.001). The predictive value of the developed clinical model, which took account of older age, advanced heart failure (NYHA III+IV), anaemia, hyponatraemia, hyperuricaemia and taking a higher dose of loop diuretics (>40 mg furosemide daily) (AUC 0.773; p<0.001) was increased by adding the NT-proBNP level (AUC 0.790). Conclusion Natriuretic peptides, clinical status and comorbiditis predict two year prognosis and they can help to a better identification of a high-risk groups of patients with heart failure with reduced and mid range ejection fraction in which more intense treatment should be considered, mainly LVAD implantation or listing to heart transplantation waiting list. Acknowledgement/Funding None

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