P-MART: Towards a classification of online prediction markets

Abstract

Prediction Markets are a family of Internet–based social computing applications, which use market price to aggregate and reveal information and opinion from dispersed audiences. The considerable complexity of these markets inhibited the full realization of the promise so far. This paper offers the P–MART classification as a tool for organizing the current state of knowledge, aiding the construction of tailored markets, identifying ingredients for Prediction Markets’ success and encouraging research. P–MART is a dual–facet classification of implementations of Prediction Markets describing traders and markets. The proposed classification framework was calibrated by examining a variety of real–world online implementations. A publicly accessible wiki resource accompanies this paper in order to stimulate further research and future expansion of the classification.