Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase to extreme temperatures and lead to more intense formation of near-surface ozone. Higher temperatures can cause heat stress and ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant; both increase cardiorespiratory mortality. Using greenhouse gas and ozone precursor emission scenarios, global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models, epidemiological data, and population projections, we projected ozone- and heat-related health risks under a changing climate. European near-surface temperature was modelled with the regional climate model (RCA4), forced by the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and the global climate model EC-EARTH, and near-surface ozone was modelled with the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) model. Two periods were compared: recent climate in 1991–2000 and future climate in 2046–2055, projecting around a 2° increase in global temperatures by that time. Projections of premature mortality considered future climate, future population, and future emissions separately and jointly to understand the relative importance of their contributions. Ozone currently causes 55 000 premature deaths annually in Europe due to long-term exposure, including a proportion of the estimated 26 000 deaths per year due to short-term exposures. When only taking into account the impact of a changing climate, up to an 11% increase in ozone-associated mortality is expected in some countries in Central and Southern Europe in 2050. However, projected decreases in ozone precursor emissions are expected to result in a decrease in ozone-related mortality (−30% as EU average). Due to aging and increasingly susceptible populations, the decrease in 2050 would be smaller, up to −24%. During summer months, ozone risks could combine with increasing temperatures, especially during the hottest periods and in densely populated urban areas. While the heat burden is currently of the same order of magnitude as ozone, due to increasing temperatures and decreasing ozone precursor emissions, heat-related mortality could be twice as large as ozone-related mortality in 2050.
Highlights
The relationship between climate change, higher temperatures, and near-surface ozone formation and mortality is well established
European near-surface temperature was modelled with the regional climate model (RCA4), forced by the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and the global climate model EC-EARTH, and near-surface ozone was modelled with the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) model
Current mean annual near-surface ozone concentrations vary in Europe from a high of 105.8 μgm−3 in Southern Europe to a low of 52.7 μgm−3 in Northern Europe
Summary
The relationship between climate change, higher temperatures, and near-surface ozone formation and mortality is well established. Biogenic emissions of ozone precursors are dependent on temperature, solar radiation and available moisture in air and soils (Andersson and Engardt 2010). Studies have shown a dependency in nearsurface ozone concentration on such meteorological factors, for example a positive correlation with temperature (Coates et al 2016). Changes to cloudiness, moisture, wind patterns, boundary layer height, and temperatures in the future could lead to changes in ozone concentrations, the relevant processes are complex and advanced models are needed to understand the change. In the European ECLAIRE emissions (V4a) by Klimont et al (2013), the decrease in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is strong both for the ‘current legislation’ (CLE) and for the ‘maximally technically feasible’ (MTF) scenarios until 2050. Projections of future near-surface ozone concentrations, based on such future emission scenarios, result in a strong decrease in future ozone concentrations in Europe (Markakis et al 2016, Watson et al 2016)
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