Abstract
In this paper we introduce two models of opinion dynamics in oligopoly markets and applythem to a situation where a new entrant challenges two incumbents of the samesize. The models differ in the way in which the two forces influencing consumerchoice—(local) social interactions and (global) advertising—interact. We study thegeneral behavior of the models using the mean field approach and Monte Carlosimulations and calibrate the models using data from the Polish telecommunicationsmarket. For one of the models criticality is observed—below a certain criticallevel of advertising the market approaches a lock-in situation, where one marketleader dominates the market and all other brands disappear. Interestingly, forboth models the best fits to real data are obtained for conformity level . This agrees very well with the conformity level found by Solomon Asch in his famoussocial experiment.
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