Abstract
This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed for five consecutive years, broke upwards in 2020 and deaths in organized violence seem to have settled on a high plateau. UCDP registered more than 80,100 deaths in organized violence in 2020, compared to 76,300 in 2019. The decrease in violence in Afghanistan and Syria was countered by escalating conflicts in, for example, Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Azerbaijan and Tigray, Ethiopia. Moreover, the call for a global ceasefire following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic failed to produce any results. In fact, the number of active state-based and non-state conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians, increased when compared to 2019. UCDP noted a record-high number of 56 state-based conflicts in 2020, including eight wars. Most of the conflicts occurred in Africa, as the region registered 30 state-based conflicts, including nine new or restarted ones.
Highlights
This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
Using new disaggregated data from UCDP, we explore how Syria has dominated the trends in organized violence in the past decade
The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed for five consecutive years, ceased in 2020 and deaths in organized violence seem to have settled on a high plateau
Summary
The trend of decreasing numbers of battle-deaths in state-based conflict around the world, witnessed every year since the peak in 2014, did continue in 2020. The decline was minor and largely driven by two cases, Syria and Afghanistan In both these cases, the reduction of violence was caused by factors other than the pandemic. After a one-year lull, the conflict again reached the intensity of war in 2020, with more than 1,000 battle-related deaths. In Afghanistan, violence had been rising steadily since 2013, and UCDP recorded almost 30,000 battle-related deaths there in 2019. The agreement provided for a complete withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan and the start of intra-Afghan talks (Maizland, 2020). Despite escalating violence during the second half of 2020, the total number of battlerelated deaths in Afghanistan reached its lowest level since 2016.
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