Abstract
In sequential competitions, the order in which teams take turns may have an impact on performance and the outcome. Previous studies with penalty shootouts have shown mixed evidence of a possible advantage for the first shooting team. This has led to some debate on whether a change in the rules of the game is needed. This work contributes to the debate by collecting an extensive dataset of shootouts which corroborates an advantage for the first shooter, albeit with a smaller effect than what has been documented in previous research. To evaluate the impact of alternative ordering of shots, we model shootouts as a probability network, calibrate it using the data from the traditional ordering, and use the model to conduct counterfactual analysis. Our results show that alternating the team that shoots first in each round would reduce the impact of ordering. These results were in part developed as supplement to field studies to support the International Football Association Board's (IFAB) consideration of changing the shooting order.
Highlights
In sequential competitions, the order in which teams take turns may have an impact on performance and outcomes
When evaluating major policy changes, the ideal analysis would be based on a randomized trial
This paper presents the essence of a rigorous analysis that supported the decision making for a major potential policy change in the world’s largest sport, namely alternative order of penalty shootouts in soccer, using historical data under the existing policy
Summary
The order in which teams take turns may have an impact on performance and outcomes. In the case of soccer penalty shootouts, it has been argued that the starting team has an advantage and that alternative orders should be considered. Our extensive data collection enabled us to calibrate a more detailed network model of the shootout, where the scoring probabilities are affected by the score difference across teams, which shows up as an important factor affecting shot outcomes.
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