Options for Environmental Regulation Policy Under China’s Carbon Peaking Target: Energy Supply Policy or Carbon Tax Policy?

Abstract

China plans to achieve the carbon peaking target by 2030 and will maybe implement a series of environmental regulation policies, primarily including energy supply policy (such as coal consumption constraint and non-fossil energy development) and carbon tax policy. This paper simulates these policies using a computable general equilibrium model. The simulation results indicate that carbon tax policy has a finite impact on the economy, the emissions reduction effect is also limited and carbon tax policy alone is insufficient to achieve China’s 2030 carbon peaking target. The coal consumption constraint policy has a good emissions reduction effect, but is not conducive to economic growth. The non-fossil energy development policy can increase energy supply and promote economic growth, but the emissions reduction effect is inadequate. In general, the simultaneous implementation of the coal consumption constraint and non-fossil energy development policies could not only achieve the carbon peaking goal, but also narrow the energy gap and reduce pressure on economic growth. However, it is notable that if carbon tax policy and energy supply policy are implemented simultaneously, the emissions reduction effect of carbon tax policy would be significantly reduced; therefore, it is likely that no carbon tax will be levied in China.