Options for Colombia's mid-century deep decarbonization strategy

Abstract

The Paris agreement called on parties to formulate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies. This paper aims to contribute to the definition of Colombia's mid-century strategy. For this, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop three representative pathways toward deep decarbonization by mid-century. We explore what might happen under Colombia's current policy trajectory, and in the context of 30% and 90% reductions in CO2 emissions by mid-century. The scenarios are intended to provide insights into strategic issues at the heart of long-term climate policy planning. We find that current and announced policies do not lead to net-zero emissions and that decarbonization requires early and sustained efforts toward clean energy production. We also find that stopping deforestation and intensifying agriculture are key components in any effort to decarbonize and for improving livelihoods. The use of emerging technologies such as sustainable bio-based fuels, the electrification of the transport fleet and the massive deployment of carbon free power generation will play a crucial role in decarbonization.