Abstract
ABSTRACT In the context of global warming and the increasing water shortage in dry areas, it is necessary to find a sustainable pathway for utilization of land resources (ULR) to solve these problems. For this purpose, using socioeconomic and environmental indicators from 2006 to 2018 and taking the Tarim Basin, China as an example, this study employed an integrated approach composed of the indicator evaluation system (IES) and the System Dynamics (SD) model to evaluate the possibility of sustainable ULR in the basin. During the simulation, three scenarios namely traditional development (TD), economic priority (EP) and harmonious development (HD) were designed, and different thresholds were set for each indicator of potential ULR in each sub-region to predict their future development status. The IES was established to derive the sustainable utilization degree (SUD) of ULR. The results show that the SUD in Tarim in 2030 is likely be 0.60 (TD), 0.62 (EP) and 0.68 (HD), indicating that only in HD scenario is it possible to find pathway to solve water scarcity problem and achieve sustainable ULR. This study provides a supportive idea for decision-making on sustainable ULR in Tarim and also an approach for similar sustainability assessment in other dry areas.
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