Optimization of the process of forecasting the number of traffic accidents

In order to overcome the problems of forecasting on an annual basis has little significance for the actual prevention of traffic road accidents In the prediction of the number of road traffic accidents, a new heuristic prediction processing method for small sample data sets based on the IDWPSO prediction framework is proposed. This framework improves the generalization ability of small sample data prediction, avoids local optimization, and ensures the accuracy of road traffic accident prediction. On the basis of the above, comparative simulation experiments with other common traffic accident prediction methods is completed. The simulation results show that the proposed framework can be effectively applied to the direction of information control in the transportation field. Reduce the number of traffic accidents by predicting the number of short-term road traffic accidents.

Road Traffic Crash is a major public health issue experienced in the world today. This has therefore led to a significant damage to property, loss of lives thereby constituting an alarming problem. Road safety are measures put in place to prevent or reduce the risk of an accident occurring. The main problem identified by the researcher was the problem of numerous and fatal accidents on the highway in Cameroon. It is against this background that the main endeavor of this research is to identify the impact of achieving long lasting improvement on road accident prevention. safety and The role of road safety and accident prevention is very vital in Cameroon, since way. it reduces and preserved human life and properties in the high This paper sought to find out the influence of road safety and accident prevention in Cameroon. The study was purely based on literature review. From the review of several theories and emp irical studies it was established that accidents were as a result of more of human factors like speed, overloading, non respect of road signs. After analysing the data, the ensuring findings revealed that in spite of the results it still has a lot of setba cks coming from the methodology used, time, respondents and geographical limitations. Therefore, the researcher is recommending that if ICT tools like Geographical Positioning System, Transport Management System is been used, infrastructure of roads is imp roved, constant checks by road stakeholders, it will help to reduce accidents on our highways in our economy. This paves the necessity of way for the reader to have an indepth knowledge about road safety and accident prevention in Cameroon gives opportunities to bring out further research on this topic.

안전한 사회를 구축하는데 있어서 교통상의 안전은 가장 중요한 부분으로, 교통상의 안전에 위해를 가하는 교통사고는 단순히 사고로 인한 재물적인 손해 뿐 만 아니라 이를 복구하기 위한 2차, 3차적 비용과 생명에 있어서도 큰 손실을 입힐 수 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 교통사고와 관련하여 전국에서 발생하는 도로상의 교통사고의 분포를 분석해 교통사고 핫스팟을 제시하고, 공간회귀분석을 통해 교통사고에 영향을 미치는 거시환경 요인들을 진단하고자하였다. 독립변수로는 거시환경적 요인, 교통학적 요인에 해당하는 변인들을 사용하였으며 종속변수로는 교통사고 발생건수와 교통사고 사상자수로 설정하였다. 사고 장소의 포인트 데이터를 지도에 매핑하는 포인트 매핑 분석결과, 전국에서 발생하는 교통사고가 밀집되어 발생하고 있는 지역이 존재하고 있음을 지도상에서 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 핫스팟 지역을 구체적으로 확인하기 위하여 KDE 분석을 실시한 결과 서울특별시 및 광역시를 중심으로 교통사고 핫스팟이 분포하고 있었으며, 해당 지역에서 높은 밀도의 핫스팟 그리드 군집을 확인할 수 있었다. 마지막으로 공간회귀분석을 진행하기 전에 공간적 자기상관분석을 진행하였다. 전국구에서 발생한 교통사고 발생건수를 대상으로 전역적(globla) 통계량을 분석한 결과, Moran’s I 계수가 유의하게 나타나 교통사고 발생건수가 공간적 자기 상관성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 국지적(local) 통계량 분석을 위한 LISA 분석을 실시한 결과, HH(high-high)유형에 속하는 지역으로 서울시 인근 경기도 지역이 제시되었다. 또 다른 종속변인인 전국구에서 발생한 교통사고 사상자수를 기준으로 한 공간적 자기상관성을 분석한 결과 또한 서울시 인근의 경기도 도시지역 중심으로 HH(high-high)유형을 발견하였다. 전국구 교통사고의 유의미한 공간적 자기 상관성을 확인한 후에 공간회귀분석을 실시한 결과, 사회환경적 요소 중에서는 인구밀도, 운수사업체 수가 교통사고 발생건수에 정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며 교통학적 요소 중에서는 대로, 중로가 유의미한 정적인 영향을 미치는 것을 발견하였다. 교통사고 사상자수를 대상으로 한 모형의 공간회귀 분석결과, 교통사고 사상자수에 공간자기종속성이 있음에도 불구하고 공간회귀모델이 유의미하지 않게 나타나 해당 모형은 분석에 적합하지 않은 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 2015년 발생한 교통사고 건수와 사상자 수를 경찰이 기록한 공식적 통계에 의존하여 센서스자료와 통합하여 접근하였는데, 교통사고를 중심으로 핫스팟을 진단하고 거시적인 측면에서 영향 요인을 다루었다는 데에 의의가 있는 연구라 할 수 있다.Traffic safety is the most important part of building a safe society. Traffic accidents, which pose a risk to traffic safety, can not only be a property damage caused by an accident, but also a secondary and tertiary cost for recovering it, and a great loss in life. The purpose of this study is to present the traffic accident hotspots by analyzing the distribution of traffic accidents on the roads related to these traffic accidents, and to diagnose the macro environment factors influencing the traffic accidents through spatial regression analysis. The dependent variable was the number of traffic accidents and the number of traffic accidents. As a result of the point mapping analysis which maps the point data of the accident place to the map, it was confirmed that there is an area where the traffic accidents occurred in the whole country are occurred. In addition, KDE analysis was conducted to confirm the hotspot area. As a result, hotspots of traffic accidents were distributed around Seoul and Metropolitan City, and hotspot grid clusters with high density were identified in the area. Finally, spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed before spatial regression analysis. As a result of analyzing the global statistic for the number of traffic accidents occurred in the whole country, Moran s I coefficient was significant and the number of traffic accidents was found to have spatial autocorrelation. As a result of LISA analysis for local statistical analysis, the Gyeonggi province of Seoul was suggested as a region belonging to the HH (high-high) type. As a result of analyzing the spatial autocorrelation based on the number of traffic accidents occurred in the nationwide district, another subordinate variable, HH (high-high) type was also found around Gyeonggi city area near Seoul city. As a result of the spatial regression analysis after confirming the significant spatial autocorrelation of the traffic accidents in the national district, the population density and the number of the transportation enterprises were found to have a statistically significant effect on the number of traffic accidents among the social environmental factors. , And middle school students had significant positive effects. As a result of the spatial regression analysis of the model for the traffic accidents, it was found that the spatial regression model was not significant even though there was spatial dependence on the number of traffic accidents. This study implies that the number of traffic accidents and the number of casualties incurred in 2015 were integrated with the census data based on the official statistics recorded by the police.

Background:One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model.Methods:The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012.Results:The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months.Conclusion:The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year.

Issues related to the prevention of road traffic accidents, including its socio-psychological aspects, have been relevant for several decades, not only at the state, but also at the international level. However, despite the existing developments on this topic, both theoretical and methodological and practical problems have not been fully identified, which ultimately will determine the socio-psychological conditions that can successfully prevent traffic accidents. Actual today is the problem of preventing dangerous (aggressive) in driving. The object of the study was the socio-psychological prevention of traffic accidents and dangerous (aggressive) driving of vehicles. The subject of the study is the socio-psychological conditions for the prevention of road traffic accidents and the dangerous (aggressive) driving of vehicles. The aim of the article is to study social ideas about the need to prevent dangerous (aggressive) vehicle driving among citizens and employees of the internal affairs bodies of the Russian Federation. The respondents to this socio-psychological study were employees of the State traffic inspectorate, as well as citizens, including professional drivers, drivers of personal vehicles and citizens who do not have a driver’s license. The total sample of the study was 105 respondents. The respondents' answers show an insufficient level of organization of both the propaganda activities of the State traffic inspectorate and the prevention of road accidents.

The basic aim of the study was to investigate the influence of alcohol consumption on the road traffic safety in Poland. For this purpose, statistical data were used, published. by the Road Traffic Department of the Civic Militia Headquarters in the years 1975-1984, as well as the data published in Statistical Yearbooks of the Central Statistical Office for these years. It was impossible to include earlier periods in the analysis as in 1975 the rules of statistical registration of traffic accidents were changed, making the data from before 1975 uncomparable. When analysing the problem of the influence the extent of alcohol consumption has on road traffic safety, attention should be drawn to two problems. Firstly, accidents are caused not only by drunk drivers of vehicles but also by drunk pedestrians. Secondly, the drunkenness of the participants of traffic is not an isolated factor but it acts in correlation with other factors, such as e.g. faulty configuration of the road or wrong organization of road traffic. The taking into account of the above problems complicates the analysis of the discussed subject; however, they should not be left out of consideration. A collision of a car with a pedestrian has for many years now been the most frequent type of a traffic accident in Poland, amounting to 43-45 per cent of all traffic accidents. Moreover, traffic accidents caused by drunk pedestrians constitute 43-50 per cent of all accidents caused by drunk persons. Therefore, the contribution of drunk persons to traffic accidents in Poland is considerable; yet it is very difficult to find out how many drunk pedestrains participate in traffic and, in this connection, what is the relation between the number of such persons and that of accidents they cause. For that matter, such difficulties arise also , when one tries to find out the number of drunk drivers of vehicles as in Poland there are no data available which would make such an estimation possible. In spite of these difficulties, the basic hypothesis has been confirmed, according to which the greater the extent of alcohol consumption, the. Higher the frequency of traffic accidents caused by drunk persons. As shown by a statistical analysis by means of the correlation coefficient, there is a strong direct correlation between the two phenomena (r =0.680). This correlation was true for the years 1975-1980 only, while for the years 1981-1984 the smaller was the extent of alcohol consumption, the greater was the frequency of traffic accidents caused by drunk persons. It should be assumed that this absurd result was caused by the lowering of the official figures on the extent of alcohol consumption in Poland in the years 198l-1984 which did not take into account the consumption of illegally distilled alcohol. An estimation was made of the above figures and thus the approximate actual extent of alcohol consumption in Poland in the years 1981-1984 was established. Also the results of traffic accidents caused by drunk persons were studied. Judged by the number of deaths per accident, they .appeared to be much more serious than those caused by sober participants of traffic. The difference between the results of accidents caused by drunk as compared with sober persons was also found to vary according to whether the drunk perpetrator was a pedestrian or a driver, and what vehicle he was driving in the latter case. For instance, while 0.114 persons per accident died in traffic accidents caused in 1979-1984 b sober pedestrians, the ratio was 0.156 in the case of drunk pedestrians; the respective ratios were 0.116 and 0.191 in the case of sober vs. drunk drivers of passenger cars, and 0.132 and 0.320 in the case of sober vs. drunk drivers of tractors. The distribution of traffic accidents caused by drunk persons according to the time of the day, day of the week and month of the year was also analysed. The yearly distribution of accidents caused by drunk pedestrians appeared to shape differently as compared with accidents caused by drunk drivers. Drunk drivers of vehicles cause the greatest number of accidents in the period from July till October. and drunk pedestrians - from October till January. Also the analysis of the territorial distribution of traffic accidents caused by drunk persons brought interesting results, Drunk pedestrians cause traffic accidents first and foremost in towns (about two thirds of such accidents), in big cities in particular, whereas drunk drivers cause accidents mainly on roads out of towns (about 60 per cent of such accidents). The lack of data concerning the extent of alcohol consumption in the separate voivodships greatly complicated the analysis of the territorial distribution of traffic accidents caused by drunk persons. However, it was possible to arrive at the following conclusion: the number of accidents caused by drunk participants of road traffic per 10.000 of the population of a given voivodship (the index of occurrence of such accidents) depends not only on the extent of alcohol consumption in the voivodship but also to some degree on its urbanization and development of road transport. Particularly in voivodships where a high level of urbanization (measured by the size of the urban population) and a highly developed road transport (measured by the number of persons per one passenger car) is not accompanied by an adequate quality of roads and good organization of road traffic; the large number of accidents caused by drunk persons cannot be explained by a high level of alcohol consumption. Bad road conditions exert the greatest influence on those of the participants of traffic who find it difficult to adapt their behavior1r to the complex situation on the road, i.e. on drunk persons, among others, whose intellectual and psychomotoric efficiency is handicapped due to the effects of alcohol. Bad road conditions may ,,produce" errors committed by drunk participants of traffic, and lead to traffic accidents caused by these persons, thus making the number of such accidents larger than that expected when considering the .number of drunk' participants of road traffic. However. there are voivodships where the factors leading to traffic accidents caused by drunk persons do not seem to be major and yet the number of such accidents is considerable. These are probably the voivodships where the extent of alcohol consumption is particularly high. It should be added that the taking up of the subject included in the title was justified by the seriousness of the problem. In the years 1975-1984, the number of traffic accidents caused by drunk persons was on a constant increase in Poland. While accidents caused by drunk persons constituted 21.5 per cent of all accidents in 1975, their respective share was 26.5 per cent in 1984. Therefore, it is imperative to apply measures that could stop a further growth of this dangerous tendency.

This chapter presents a comprehensive study aimed at enhancing road safety in India through the development and application of a machine-learning predictive model for traffic accident severity on Indian highways. With road accidents being a leading cause of death and injury, claiming approximately 1.35 million lives globally each year, India faces a particularly acute challenge, reporting nearly 449,002 road accidents in 2019 alone. This work leverages the adaptability and superior predictive accuracy of machine-learning algorithms to model accident severity, thereby providing a basis for understanding contributing factors and formulating effective preventive strategies. Employing a meticulous multistep methodology, this study involves the collection and preparation of data from authorized organizations for data availability, feature selection, model training, parameter tuning, and model evaluation based on statistical accuracy matrixes. The chapter concludes by highlighting the significant potential of integrating machine-learning techniques with enhanced data recording systems to improve road safety modeling, decision-making, and accident prevention, ultimately contributing to the reduction of road traffic accidents and their associated human and economic costs.

Road Safety remains a major societal issue within the European Union. In 2014, some 26,000 people died and more than 203,500 were seriously injured on the roads of Europe, i.e. the equivalent of a medium town. However, although there are variations between Member States, road fatalities have been falling throughout the EU. Over the last 20 years, most Member States have achieved an overall reduction, some more than 50%. During this period, research on road safety and accident prevention has predominantly focused on protecting car occupants, with significant results. However, at the same time the number of fatalities and injuries among other categories of road users has not fallen to the same extent, indeed, in some cases, they have risen. The “Vulnerable Road Users” (VRUs) in particular are a priority and represent a real challenge for researchers working on road safety and accident prevention. Accidents involving VRUs comprised approximately 48% of all fatalities in the EU during 2014, with Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) comprising 18% and cyclists comprising 8% of the total numbers of fatalities. The Commission adopted in July 2010 its Policy Orientations on Road Safety for 2010-2020. One of the strategic objectifies identified by the Commission is to improve the safety of Vulnerable Road Users. With this category of road users, motorcycle and moped users require specific attention given the trend in the number of accidents involving them and their important share of fatalities and serious injuries. The SaferWheels study was therefore conducted to investigate accident causation for traffic accidents involving powered two-wheelers and bicycles in the European Union. The objective of the study was to gather PTW and bicycle accident data from in-depth crash investigations, obtain accident causation and medical data for those crashes, and to store the information according to an appropriate and efficient protocol enabling a causation-oriented analysis. The expected outcomes were: - Collection of accident data for at least 500 accidents of which approximately 80% would involve Powered Two–Wheelers and the remainder bicycles. Equal numbers of cases were to be gathered in six countries; France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the UK. - In-depth investigation and reporting for each of the accidents on the basis of the data collected. - Description of the main accident typologies and accident factors. - Proposal of most cost-effective measures to prevent PTW and bicycle accidents.

The study analyzes the relation between vehicle traffic parameters, i.e. volume, speed, noise and road accidents within the time period of one year. The data regarding the number of accidents was obtained from the Polish Accident and Collision Records System (Polish abbreviation - SEWIK). Traffic flow, vehicle speed and urban traffic noise were recorded by two traffic and noise monitoring stations at Krakowska and Lodzka streets in Kielce in 2013. The road noise was calculated according to the Cnossos-EU method and compared with measured values. Relation between the median of the number of traffic accidents, traffic volume, vehicle speed and noise in subsequent hours of the day was analyzed. High values of the correlation coefficient calculated for the relationship between the number of road accidents and traffic volume, speed and noise were found. In the case of Krakowska street (Road No 762), the values of this coefficient were, respectively: 0.88, -0.83 and 0.74. For Lodzka street (Road No 74), the values of the correlation coefficient between the tested parameters were 0.89, -0.82 and 0.85. The study showed that the largest number of road accidents occurs during the morning and afternoon rush hours. At these times of the day the noise is also the highest. The possibility of using the median of the road noise and traffic volume as a traffic accidents descriptor was examined.

도로교통사고 발생원인의 93%는 운전자에 의해 발생하며, 우리나라의 교통사고 사망자수는 OECD회원국 중 1위를 차지하여 국가경제력 위상에 걸맞지 않는 수준에 머물러 있다. 이에 국가에서는 매년 전국 시 군 구를 대상으로 교통문화지수를 측정하여 교통안전정책 개선과 안전의식 함양을 도모하고 있으나 교통문화지수와 실제 교통사고와의 영향관계는 가정에 그치고 있으며 검증은 수행되지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구는 교통문화지수가 실제로 교통문화수준을 대변하여 교통사고와의 영향관계가 있는지에 대한 검증을 수행하였고, 그 결과를 바탕으로 교통문화지수 실태조사의 개선방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 2010년부터 2012년까지의 교통문화지수 실태조사 보고서의 자료를 바탕으로 구조방정식을 통해 교통사고건수와 교통사고 사망자수의 영향관계를 분석하였다. 구조방정식을 통한 영향관계 분석은 시 군 구별 교통문화지수와 교통 사고건수 및 사망자수의 관계분석(연구1)과 교통문화지수 증감과 교통사고건수 및 사망자수의 증감의 영향관계 분석(연구2)로 나누어 수행하였다. 그 결과, 연구1의 경우 모형의 적합도가 낮게 나타났으나 연구2의 경우 교통문화지수가 증가하면 사고건수 및 사망자수가 감소하는 것으로 나타나 교통문화지수의 효과가 검증되었다. 93% of road traffic accidents result from drivers' fault and Korea has the largest number of deaths from traffic accidents among the OECD members. For this reason, the country is measuring Traffic Culture Index (TCI) in each city, gun and gu annually to improve traffic safety policies and promote safety consciousness, but the influencing relation between TCI and actual traffic accidents is only based on the assumptions and no verification has been carried out, yet. Therefore, this study aims to verify if in reality, TCI represents the traffic culture level and has an influencing relation with traffic accidents and to suggest an improvement plan of research on the present state of TCI, based on the result. For this purpose, bases on data of the report about the present state of TCI from 2010 to 2012, and the influencing relation between the number of traffic accidents and the number of deaths from traffic accidents was analyzed through structural equation model. For influencing relation analysis through structural equation, research 1 to analyze the relation among TCI in each city, gun and gu, the number of traffic accidents and the number of deaths, and research 2 to analyze the influencing relation of the increase in TCI, the number of traffic accidents and the number of deaths were carried out. When verifying the influencing relation with traffic accidents through structural equation, the goodness of fit of the model was low in research 1 and as TCI increased, the number of accidents and deaths decreased in research 2 and thus the effect of TCI was verified.

Since the 21st century, China’s urbanization process is accelerating, the construction industry has developed rapidly and become one of the pillar industries of the national economy, but the construction safety problems also follow. Although the progress of modern technology and management level can improve this problem to a certain extent, safety accidents still occur frequently in actual construction due to the complexity of construction process and the interference of many uncertain factors. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research on the prevention and control system of construction safety accidents, which is of great significance to improve the prevention and control ability of construction safety accidents and reduce the accident rate. On the basis of a large number of literature studies, this paper establishes an evaluation model for the prevention and control of construction safety accidents, analyses four levels including the risk of equipment failure, environmental risk, the risk of personnel failure and management risk, verifies the model through AHP, and gives weight to each index to draw relevant conclusions. Combined with the current situation of construction safety accidents in construction companies in recent two years, this paper discusses and analyses the problems existing in the prevention and control of construction safety accidents in construction companies, and puts forward corresponding optimization countermeasures, in order to provide assistance for the decision-making of the prevention and control of construction safety accidents.

Land transportation traffic accidents in Indonesia were affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. During the Covid-19 pandemic, several transportation policies were implemented. An absolute must for implementing transportation safety. During the Covid pandemic in 2019 and 2020, the average number of traffic accidents was 25%, the number of fatalities was 24%, the number of injured victims was 21% and the number of accidents was 25%. In 2021, Indonesian people will begin to face new normal conditions, where all activities run normally in line with the presence of the Covid 19 virus. So that in 2021 and 2022 there will be another increase in the number of traffic accidents, deaths, injuries and accidents. The average figures for 2021 and 2022 for the number of traffic accidents are 26%, the number of fatalities is 26%, the number of injured victims is 23% and the number of accidents is 28%. With the presence of Regulation Number 21 of 2020 concerning PSBB, the number of accidents in Indonesia can be reduced, but the reduction in the accident rate has not occurred significantly. In 2019 the accident rate was 31% and in the year the PSBB policy was implemented the accident rate was 23%, the reduction in the accident rate was only 8%. Keywords : Accident rate, covid 19 pandemic, descriptive analysis, road traffic accidents

(1) Background: The number of casualties due to car accidents in Europe is decreasing. However, there are still very large differences in the levels of road safety between countries, even within the European Union. Therefore, it is vital to conduct reliable international analyses to compare the effectiveness of actions taken to prevent road accidents. Information on the number of accidents, injuries, and fatalities can be found in various databases (e.g., Eurostat or OECD). In this paper, it is clearly shown that data on car accidents and the resulting injuries are not comparable between different countries, and any conclusions drawn using these data as their basis will be erroneous. (2) Methods: The indicators of the number of car accidents, injured people, and fatalities in relation to the number of inhabitants were determined, then their distribution and mutual correlations were examined for a group of selected European countries. (3) Results: There is no correlation between the indicators of the number of car accidents and injuries and the indicator of fatalities. An assessment of road safety based on these indicators would result in inconsistent and ambiguous conclusions. (4) Conclusions: It has been empirically shown that data on the number of car accidents and injured people from different countries are not comparable. These conclusions were verified by providing examples of the definitions of an injured person used in different countries. This paper clearly indicates that any international comparisons can only be made based on data regarding the number of road accident fatalities.

Fatal accidents following changes in daylight savings time: the American experience

Road traffic accidents have become a leading cause of accidental death in Vietnam today, especially in Hochiminh city which is the biggest city. It is revealing that number of accident...