Optimal seismic monitoring for event location with application to On Site Inspection of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

Abstract

Seismic networks are used to monitor seismic activity including explosions and natural events such as earthquakes. Data from a seismic network are used to identify the occurrence of an event and to determine the source location. The precision of the location estimates is highly dependent on the network configuration. In this article we apply the statistical theory of optimal design to derive network configurations that maximize the precision of location estimates. We derive theoretical characterizations of optimal networks and bounds that can be used to benchmark networks when practical constraints are present. We also discuss practical issues that often arise in seismic monitoring. An application of particular importance for our results is On Site Inspection (OSI) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Suspected violations of the Treaty may lead the Treaty Organization to send an OSI team to investigate. One of the first tasks of the OSI team will be to deploy a mobile seismic network that can help pinpoint the source of the suspected blast from aftershock activity. Rapid deployment of an efficient network will be critical to the success of the mission. Our results provide a theoretical basis and practical guideline for configuring such a network.