OPTIMAL MACHINE LEARNING BASED FORECASTING MODEL TO ANALYZE THE IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN CHINA’S ECONOMY ON EXPORT PERFORMANCE

The discussion on the implications of China's experience during the Asian financial crisis on the reform of the international financial system can be divided into two separate parts: China's experience during the Asian financial crisis and China's ideas on the reform of the international financial system. In China, the focus of discussion among economists since the Asian financial crisis has been on how to maintain the momentum of growth under a worsening international environment and how to minimize the loss caused by the unfavourable change of the international environment. Few Chinese economists have participated in the discussion of the problem of reform of the international financial system until recently. This article (written in August 1999) discusses China's experience during the Asian crisis and China's opinion regarding reform of the international financial system. I. China's Economic Performance during the Asian Financial Crisis China did not completely escape from the so-called contagion effect. There were at least six mechanisms through which the Chinese economy was affected. * The income effect: The crisis reduced the domestic demand of the crisis-hit economy, which in turn led to a reduction in its imports. China's export growth has slowed down significantly due to the recession in Japan, crisis-hit Asian economies and the overall slow-down of world economic growth, which was partly attributable to the Asian financial crisis. * The substitution effect: The devaluation of Asian currencies, especially the devaluation of the Japanese yen has put tremendous pressure on China's export performance. The competitiveness of China's export has been weakened greatly by the devaluation of other Asian currencies. China has paid a great cost for resisting the temptation to devalue. (It appears that the income effect has a greater impact on China's export than the substitution effect.) * Dumping: For certain periods of time during the crisis, some sectors of the Chinese economy complained that they were suffering great losses by the dumping of some companies in crisis-hit economies. * Investor confidence: Due to the similarity of Asian economies, one economy's fall will immediately lead to the loss of confidence by international investors in the others. Even though an economy's fundamentals may be basically sound, the stampede of capital outflows caused by the herd effect will bring the economy down. China's financial system has problems with a high ratio of non-performing loans, low capital adequacy, poor management and lack of transparency. The bankruptcy of the Guangdong International Trust and Investment Company (GITIC) in late 1998 dealt a heavy blow to the confidence of the international financial community in China's financial system. As a result, international capital inflows slowed down significantly. In the international capital market, the borrowing cost for Chinese financial institutions and enterprises has increased significantly. * Devaluation expectations: Owing to the worsening of external environment in general, and the weakened competitiveness in particular, the expectations that China would devalue were extremely strong. The devaluation expectations discouraged capital inflows and encouraged capital outflows. In 1998, despite China's tight capital control, current account surplus of about US$30 billion, China's official foreign exchange reserves increased by only US$6 billion. China's Fight against Deflation Since the second quarter of 1997, China's economic growth has slowed down quite significantly. However, the slowing-down can only be partially attributed to the Asian financial crisis. To a larger extent, the slowing-down was a domestic issue. Actually, as a result of the contractionary macroeconomic policy carried out since the middle of 1993, the Chinese economy had begun to slow down as early as in the middle of 1997, following the falling of inflation. …

With the yearly increase of export proportion in China's economy, China's economic growth is relying more and more on export. In the current case of weak external demand, Exports plays an important role in the stability of China's future economic development. Through the State Space Model, the paper has tested the variation tendency of how much China's economy rely on export, which turns out that China's economy has been relying more and more on export year by year since 2002. Following the analysis of China's export, the relationship between export rebate rates and export rate is analyzed through a Linear Regression Model as an attempt to reveal the impact of export rebate on exports, which can prove that export rebate might be a feasible way to Stabilize China's economic growth.

Drivers' analysis of trajectories (commercial, logistical, and financial) of China's export performance: A comparative analysis between eastern and south-eastern Asian countries

Purpose Artificial intelligence (AI) is a significant trend in digital technology that is revolutionizing the field of global business and internationalization. Based on institutional theory and resource-based view, this study examines the intricate relationship between AI capabilities and export performance, taking into account the different province market development within a country and cultural distance. Design/methodology/approach This study gathered data from the websites of privately owned Chinese exporters and complemented it with a survey in 2023. In conducting the survey, we employed a simple random-sampling approach to select 1,500 exporters in China, with a focus on economic development indicators, particularly GDP contribution. We received 1,000 surveys, but only 749 were valid due to missing data. The study’s comprehensive coverage of regions ensured the inclusion of potential variations and subnational disparities within the country. This study conducted ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and standardized variables before entering into the regressions. Findings The results demonstrate that AI capabilities have a significant positive impact on export performance. In addition, the influence of AI capabilities on export performance varies depending on the home-country and host-country institutional environment. The relationship between AI capabilities and export performance is strengthened by larger cultural distance, while province market development within a country has a negative moderating effect on this relationship. In less developed markets, the AI capabilities can drive significantly export performance. In developed markets with more advanced institutional development, the significance of AI capabilities in reducing transaction costs diminishes due to established institutions and market structures. AI capabilities serve as an intermediary institutional mechanism that connects the institutional context of the home country with the cultural environment of the host country. Originality/value While the impact of AI on international business and internationalization performance is a growing area of study, further exploration of the moderating factors that influence this relationship is needed. Organizations operating in diverse global markets are profoundly shaped by institutional contexts in their operational environments. This research addresses the relatively unexplored role of institutional factors within the home country (provincial market development) and host country (cultural distance) in moderating the effects of AI capabilities on export performance. This study illuminates the intricate dynamics underlying the relationship between AI capabilities and export performance, with a specific focus on province-level market development and cultural distance. Employing institutional theory as the overarching framework, this research sheds light on how AI serves as an intermediary institutional mechanism, bridging the gaps related to cultural differences and varying market development levels. In doing so, it contributes to academia by advancing our understanding of how AI is shaping internationalization dynamics and the interaction between AI capabilities and institutional factors. Additionally, it offers insights for business managers and policymakers to make informed strategic decisions regarding AI capabilities.

Decomposing China's export growth into extensive margin, export quality and quantity effects

Examined from a historical perspective, China's joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) can be regarded as a continuation and deepening of China's twenty-year-long process of reform and opening up to the outside world. Today, the results and accomplishments of reform and opening up are already being widely shared by domestic groups with vested interests within China itself. Yet as the momentum for advancing reform declines day by day, China is hoping that such a major step as joining the WTO will set the table for a healthy international economic environment that will be conducive to the growth of China's foreign trade. This, in its turn, would have the effect of paving the way for and bringing momentum to rapid development in China's own domestic economy. In addition, it would lay the foundation for reducing trade-related friction between China and other nations, and for China to take part in the next round of multilateral trade negotiations. Perhaps it would also lay the groundwork for prospects of reforming and changing the unreasonable rules and regulations that still exist today in the arena of international trade and finance. Furthermore, China's hopes and expectations may be that joining the WTO will bring about a deeper and fuller blending of China's economy into the great tide of economic globalization, thus providing a fresh drive for reform and opening up in the new century.

Previous articleNext article No AccessExport Performance and Enterprise Reform in China's Coastal ProvincesF. C. PerkinsF. C. PerkinsEast Asia Analytical Unit, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Search for more articles by this author East Asia Analytical Unit, Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and TradePDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Economic Development and Cultural Change Volume 45, Number 3April 1997 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/452289 Views: 14Total views on this site Citations: 18Citations are reported from Crossref © 1997 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Emanuele Felice, Iacopo Odoardi, Dario D’Ingiullo The Chinese Inland-Coastal Inequality: The Role of Human Capital and the 2007–2008 Crisis Watershed, Italian Economic Journal 2 (Sep 2021).https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-021-00169-wJaya Prakash Pradhan, Mohammad Zohair Subnational Export Performance and Determinants, Review of Market Integration 7, no.22 (Jul 2016): 133–174.https://doi.org/10.1177/0974929216653631Dr Mo Yamin, Prof Rudolf R Sinkovics, Jaya Prakash Pradhan, Keshab Das Regional export advantage of rising power SMEs, critical perspectives on international business 11, no.3/43/4 (Jul 2015): 236–258.https://doi.org/10.1108/cpoib-10-2013-0040Elisha P. Renne The Changing Contexts of Chinese-Nigerian Textile Production and Trade, 1900‒2015, TEXTILE 13, no.33 (Jan 2016): 212–233.https://doi.org/10.1080/14759756.2015.1054105Ward Warmerdam Beyond the Debates of Which is Best: Investigating the Complementarity of Chinese and Western Aid, and Possible Lessons from China’s Development, Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 7, no.11 (Jan 2014): 77–117.https://doi.org/10.1007/s40647-013-0005-8Joshua Abor Do export status and export intensity increase firm performance?, Thunderbird International Business Review 53, no.11 (Dec 2010): 9–18.https://doi.org/10.1002/tie.20386Lingwen Huang, Yang Yao Impacts of privatization on employment: evidence from China, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 8, no.22 (May 2010): 133–156.https://doi.org/10.1080/14765281003750199Zhibiao LIU, Qiang WU Product Quality Preference, Machinery Import and Import-induced Export, Studies in Regional Science 40, no.44 (Jan 2010): 963–975.https://doi.org/10.2457/srs.40.963A. AZADEH, G. H. ATAEI A PRINCIPLE COMPONENT ANALYSIS — NUMERICAL TAXONOMY APPROACH FOR EXPORT PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT: THE CASE OF IRANIAN CHEMICAL UNITS, The Singapore Economic Review 54, no.0404 (Dec 2009): 689–707.https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590809003446Robert G. Wallace Breeding Influenza: The Political Virology of Offshore Farming, Antipode 41, no.55 (Nov 2009): 916–951.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8330.2009.00702.xZhang Xiaohe The Impact of Globalisation and Labour Market Reforms in China, (Jan 2007): 49–66.https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-1-84334-217-5.50003-4Yifei SUN, Hongyang WANG DOES INNOVATION MATTER FOR EXPORT IN CHINA'S RURAL ENTERPRISES? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCES FROM JIANGSU, Asian Geographer 24, no.1-21-2 (Jan 2005): 1–15.https://doi.org/10.1080/10225706.2005.9684119Jang C. Jin On the Relationship Between Openness and Growth in China: Evidence from Provincial Time Series Data, The World Economy 27, no.1010 (Nov 2004): 1571–1582.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00667.xJianshu Deng, Bulent Menguc, John Benson The impact of human resource management on export performance of Chinese manufacturing enterprises, Thunderbird International Business Review 45, no.44 (Jun 2003): 409–429.https://doi.org/10.1002/tie.10088Jang C. Jin Exports and growth: is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies?, Applied Economics 34, no.11 (Oct 2010): 63–76.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840010025632David L Dean, Bülent Mengüç, Christopher Paul Myers Revisiting Firm Characteristics, Strategy, and Export Performance Relationship:, Industrial Marketing Management 29, no.55 (Sep 2000): 461–477.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-8501(99)00085-1W NAUDe The Determinants of South African Exports: An Econometric Analysis*(1), The South African Journal of Economics 68, no.22 (Jun 2000): 103–113.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2000.tb01167.xMauricio Jenkins, Felipe Larrain, Gerardo Esquivel Export Processing Zones in Central America, SSRN Electronic Journal (Jan 1999).https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.168174

Seventy-eight nations are examined for their qualitative attributes on three measures of trade performance: import performance, export performance, and competitive position. Tests for association among export and import performance qualities suggest that there are two distinctive groups of nations in the international economy; traders and non-traders. In addition, logit regression analyses suggest that it is a nation's export sector that determines its competitive position quality, while the import sector has little impact.

Developing countries may expand their exports through participating in international production networks organized by multinational corporations. China appears to have been successful with this approach in the past two decades. Its exports rose from $9.8 billion in 1978 (ranked as thirty-second in the world) to $762 billion in 2005 (the third-largest in the world). In the same period, accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into China increased from zero to $602 billion, and exports by foreign-invested enterprises in 2005 comprised 57 percent of China's total exports. FDI promotes China's exports mainly through labor-intensive processes and component specialization within vertically integrated international industries. However, the challenge facing China is how to increase domestic value added and how to upgrade its industry in international production networks.

Financial inclusion of firms is crucial to create jobs, boost economic growth, and promote sustainable development. The study examines how financial inclusion affects enterprise export performance based on access to finance ratios. The study analyses the effects of firms’ financial inclusion determinants and macro environment factors on firms’ export values. The data comes from Pakistan’s manufacturing sector covering 400 firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange from 1999-2021. Driven by the nature of the data, the Method of Moment Quantile Regression is employed to assess the below and above mean regression estimations, and a two-step system GMM approach is used to address endogeneity concerns. The results of the study are robust against different specifications. The study reveals that assets positively impact a firm’s export performance, emphasising the importance of asset investment for foreign market competition. Asset tangibility negatively impacts export performance, except for low-gearing corporations, and fixed assets dominate. A balanced asset mix is crucial for improving exports. Debt-to-equity ratios, except for high-gearing firms, boost export performance, but domestic firms with high leverage ratios are more likely to fail. To avoid excessive leverage risks, firms must balance debt and equity. Diversifying the asset mix to include liquid and intellectual property can boost export success. Gearing affects export performance differently depending on a firm’s debt levels. Low-geared enterprises can leverage assets and debt to boost exports, while high-geared enterprises may be financially constrained and face challenges from excessive debt. Therefore, enterprises must carefully examine their gearing levels and make informed decisions on optimising their asset composition for optimal export performance. The study also opens up the possibility of further research on the role of exchange rates and firms’ investment in line with export performance.

Financial inclusion of firms is crucial to create jobs, boost economic growth, and promote sustainable development. The study examines how financial inclusion affects enterprise export performance based on access to finance ratios. The study analyses the effects of firms’ financial inclusion determinants and macro environment factors on firms’ export values. The data comes from Pakistan’s manufacturing sector covering 400 firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange from 1999-2021. Driven by the nature of the data, the Method of Moment Quantile Regression is employed to assess the below and above mean regression estimations, and a two-step system GMM approach is used to address endogeneity concerns. The results of the study are robust against different specifications. The study reveals that assets positively impact a firm’s export performance, emphasising the importance of asset investment for foreign market competition. Asset tangibility negatively impacts export performance, except for low-gearing corporations, and fixed assets dominate. A balanced asset mix is crucial for improving exports. Debt-to-equity ratios, except for high-gearing firms, boost export performance, but domestic firms with high leverage ratios are more likely to fail. To avoid excessive leverage risks, firms must balance debt and equity. Diversifying the asset mix to include liquid and intellectual property can boost export success. Gearing affects export performance differently depending on a firm’s debt levels. Low-geared enterprises can leverage assets and debt to boost exports, while high-geared enterprises may be financially constrained and face challenges from excessive debt. Therefore, enterprises must carefully examine their gearing levels and make informed decisions on optimising their asset composition for optimal export performance. The study also opens up the possibility of further research on the role of exchange rates and firms’ investment in line with export performance.

Financial inclusion of firms is crucial to create jobs, boost economic growth, and promote sustainable development. The study examines how financial inclusion affects enterprise export performance based on access to finance ratios. The study analyses the effects of firms’ financial inclusion determinants and macro environment factors on firms’ export values. The data comes from Pakistan’s manufacturing sector covering 400 firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange from 1999-2021. Driven by the nature of the data, the Method of Moment Quantile Regression is employed to assess the below and above mean regression estimations, and a two-step system GMM approach is used to address endogeneity concerns. The results of the study are robust against different specifications. The study reveals that assets positively impact a firm’s export performance, emphasising the importance of asset investment for foreign market competition. Asset tangibility negatively impacts export performance, except for low-gearing corporations, and fixed assets dominate. A balanced asset mix is crucial for improving exports. Debt-to-equity ratios, except for high-gearing firms, boost export performance, but domestic firms with high leverage ratios are more likely to fail. To avoid excessive leverage risks, firms must balance debt and equity. Diversifying the asset mix to include liquid and intellectual property can boost export success. Gearing affects export performance differently depending on a firm’s debt levels. Low-geared enterprises can leverage assets and debt to boost exports, while high-geared enterprises may be financially constrained and face challenges from excessive debt. Therefore, enterprises must carefully examine their gearing levels and make informed decisions on optimising their asset composition for optimal export performance. The study also opens up the possibility of further research on the role of exchange rates and firms’ investment in line with export performance.

PurposeDrawing on institutional theory, this study seeks to advance the understanding of how the indirect effect of exporters' adoption of an international adaptation strategy on export performance via enhanced legitimacy is differently moderated by formal and informal institutional distances from the host country market.Design/methodology/approachSurvey data were collected from a sample of 251 exporters in China and analyzed with a multiple regression model to test the hypotheses.FindingsExporters' use of an international adaptation strategy affects their perceived legitimacy, which in turn influences their export performance. Moreover, formal institutional distance strengthens the indirect effect of an international adaptation strategy on export performance via legitimacy, whereas informal institutional distance weakens this indirect effect.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the knowledge of how and when adoption of an international adaptation strategy by exporters benefits export performance from an institutional perspective.

PurposeThis study aims to gauge the interactive effect of export intensity and diversity on export performance among exporters in an emerging economy and explore the moderating effect of export intermediaries on the internationalization–export performance relationship.Design/methodology/approachA survey was undertaken among a convenience sample of small and medium exporters located in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces in South China.FindingsThe results show that intensity and diversity interact negatively with export performance, whereas the use of export agents registered a positive effect. Exporters pursuing a strategy of high export intensity will achieve better performance provided that these exports are concentrated in a few countries. Using export agents can help in enhancing the intensity–performance relationship but not that for diversity–performance.Practical implicationsChinese exporters are advised not to blindly pursue international expansion without regard to their own resources and capabilities. They should try to strike a balance between intensity and diversity and employ external agents when needed.Originality/valueThis research seeks to address the void in the literature on how export intensity and diversity should be balanced to create a positive effect on the performance of exporting ventures in an emerging economy, which is under-addressed in the literature. It is also found that employment of export intermediaries is not always good for export performance.

Although a well-established link is observable in the existing literature on innovation–export interplay, there is a lack of research investigating the distinct impact of a variety of channels for domestic innovation and foreign technology spillovers on export performance in a unified framework. This paper uses a two-digit 1998–2013 panel dataset to empirically investigate the impact of domestic innovation efforts, innovation capability, foreign knowledge spillovers and technology transfer on export performance of large-and-medium-sized industrial enterprises (LMEs) in China. We find that: First, domestic innovation efforts significantly promote industrial export performance, while there is lack of highly-skilled human capital in China which restricts the favorable impact of innovation on exports; Second, technology imported from foreign countries have increased export competitiveness in China. Furthermore, innovative activities of foreign enterprises have led to export boom and this spillover channel experience has a stronger effect on export than one emanating from imported technology; Third, on the whole, foreign knowledge spillover channels have been more effective drivers of export performance than domestic innovation efforts. Fourth, calculations based on contribution to trade balance indicator witness a recent increase in the domestic content of industrial exports in China.