Abstract
ABSTRACTIn this paper, we empirically investigate whether the climate–migration relationship exhibits thresholds. We employ a threshold regression model and a large data set of international migration flows to investigate the existence of thresholds in the climate–migration relationship, while allowing for time-variability in the thresholds. We find evidence for one threshold in the temperature–migration relationship. The average temperature threshold in our sample is found to be 21.78°C (71.2°F) which is supported by results in other parts of the climate-society literature. However, we find that the threshold varies around a constant mean. Finally, our results show that, at the threshold, the effects of the other control variables, such as income and migration costs, change sizably.
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