On the use of estimating functions in monitoring time series for change points

Abstract

A large class of estimators including maximum likelihood, least squares and M-estimators are based on estimating functions. In sequential change point detection related monitoring functions can be used to monitor new incoming observations based on an initial estimator, which is computationally efficient because possible numeric optimization is restricted to the initial estimation. In this work, we give general regularity conditions under which we derive the asymptotic null behavior of the corresponding tests in addition to their behavior under alternatives, where conditions become particularly simple for sufficiently smooth estimating and monitoring functions. These regularity conditions unify and extend a large amount of existing procedures in the literature, while they also allow us to derive monitoring schemes in time series that have not yet been considered in the literature including non-linear autoregressive time series and certain count time series such as binary or Poisson autoregressive models. We do not assume that the estimating and monitoring functions are equal or even of the same dimension, therefore, we allow for example to combine a non-robust but more precise initial estimator with a robust monitoring scheme. Some simulations and data examples illustrate the usefulness of the described procedures.