Abstract
Understanding past changes in the characteristics of climate extremes forms an essential part of viable countermeasures to cope with climate-induced risks in a rapidly warming world. Thus, this paper endeavored to explore possible non-monotonic trend components in heavy rainfall events over the Central Highlands (Vietnam) by employing Şen’s innovative trend analysis method in conjunction with the well-defined extreme rainfall indices. The outcomes show less spatially coherent trends in the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme rainfall events across the study area, and most analyzed indices exhibited non-monotonic trend forms. The overall trends in the intensity and frequency, represented by maximum 1-day, 5-day precipitation amount (Rx1day, Rx5day), very and extremely wet days (R95p and R99p), and the number of very and extremely heavy precipitation days (R20mm and R50mm), were characterized by significant increases at three or four sites. Concerning dry and wet extremes, observed increases in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decreases in consecutive wet days (CWD) were identified significantly simultaneously at three sites. There is high domination of significant increases in high-value subgroups of these indices. Several sites also exposed significantly increasing trend behaviors in these indices within all low-, medium-, and high-value subgroups, thereby implying the intensity and frequency have intensified over recent decades. This study also indicated potential linkages between annual peaks of several extreme rainfall indices, characterizing intensity, frequency, and wet duration, usually coincided with negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña events, while dry extremes were usually found during El Niño events based on correlation analysis.
Highlights
The vast majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion have been releasing into the Earth’s atmosphere since the mid-19th century, which gives rise to profound changes in the Earth’s climate
Temporal trend possibilities of ten ETCCDI extreme rainfall indices over the Central Highlands of Vietnam were explored by employing the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, as illustrated in Fig. 3 - Fig. 12
Three stations (i.e., Kon Tum, Buon Me Thuot, and Bao Loc) experienced significant increases in Rx5day at the rate of around 1.17-2.38 mm/year, while significant decreases were found in Dak To and Ayun Pa stations, with the estimated ITA trend slope of approximately −1.5 mm/year
Summary
The vast majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion have been releasing into the Earth’s atmosphere since the mid-19th century, which gives rise to profound changes in the Earth’s climate. A recent special report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) documented approximately. Human beings experience both changes in mean climate and extreme events such as hot/cold days/nights and heavy precipitation events. These moderate and rare weather and climate extremes pose a significant threat to society and biophysical systems (Dunn et al 2020; World Meteorological Organization 2009; Zhang and Zwiers 2013). It is advisable to utilize appropriate descriptive indices of extremes and extreme-value theory (World Meteorological Organization 2009)
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