On improving approaches to reducing earthquake damage

Abstract

Catastrophic earthquakes have not occurred in Russia since the Neftegorsk earthquake of 1995. Almost 30 years of apparent calm do not mean, however, that such disasters will not occur in the coming decades. Over these 30 years, there have been about 10 earthquakes of comparable strength, but all of them were in sparsely populated areas of Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands, and Altai. The experience of recent earthquakes in Turkey and Morocco shows that the approaches to seismic hazard assessment and the system of using such assessments in construction adopted worldwide, including in Russia, need to be adjusted. The paper discusses the need to apply both a probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment, necessary for seismic risk calculations, and deterministic analysis methods that will allow moving to more reliable assessments for detailed seismic zoning in areas of possible catastrophic earthquakes and for the construction of important facilities. Seismic risk assessments have not previously been carried out on a national scale, but are necessary for the implementation of a disaster insurance system and prioritization of costs for strengthening buildings in seismically hazardous areas. The article was prepared on the basis of a report heard at a meeting of the presidium of the RAS on June 11, 2024.