On How to Approach Risk and Uncertainty to Support Decision-making

Abstract

A huge number of risk and decision analysis methods and models have been developed to support decision makers facing choices involving uncertainties about outcomes. Although a common risk analysis and management nomenclature has been developed in recent years, there is no authoritative guide on how to deal with such decision problems—different risk analysis experts would prescribe different approaches. The differences relate to how risk and uncertainty should be understood and expressed, how models should be understood and used, how the risk analysis results should be evaluated and combined with risk acceptance criteria and other decision criteria, how cost/benefit analyses should be interpreted and used, and so on.